Trading JPY crosses

Supports and Resistances for October 1, 2007

2007-09-30T19:43:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

I am back after a week when my system went pop. Now i have replaced my system with a new one and am back on. The past week was a nice ranging week and i do expect the coming week to be so as well. But there are some huge news coming out this week and it could swing the carry trades in either way. The Tenkan got released today and i expected it to have a huge impact but it seems to have fizzled out. Now the other major news is the GB rate announcement with conflicting expectations in the market about it. There are some who expect it to be unchanged but at the same time, there are rumors going around about a rate cut. I personally dont feel that there would be a rate cut but the GB bank is used to springing up surprises and they are also known to be very dynamic. With Fed, usually the ones who spring the least surprises, themselves cutting rates by 0.5, anything could happen with the GB bank. Lets see though.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.65. If that is broken, next support is at 114.45 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.08 and then at 115.65.

EURJPY - Important support at 163.88. If that is broken, next support is at 163.45 and the final major support is at 163.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 164.15 and then at 164.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 234.25. If that is broken, next support is at 232.85 and the final major support is at 232.00.On the topside, the resistance is at 235.20 and then a major resistance at 236.00.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0385. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0273 and the final major support is at 2.0203.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0496 and then a major resistance at 2.0566.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 21, 2007

2007-09-20T19:16:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Well, a typical day yesterday with the crosses full of confusion on which direction they need to go. This has been typical for the crosses for the past 2 mnths. Long gone are the days of massive trends when all you need to do was place a trade in the direction of the trend and just sit back and enjoy the profits. Even if they went against your trade a bit, you would always know that they would eventually come back. Nowadays, the crosses are full of short term trends which last only for 2-3 days at a time and you need to think on your feet to keep adjusting your trades according to the trend. Literally, a nightmare for long term traders. I, for one, truly believed that a direction would emerge once the rate announcement was made but that does not seem to be the case. As for today, i believe it would be a good day for longs but today is a Friday and no one really knows what would happen on a Friday. Lets see though. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.85. If that is broken, next support is at 114.45 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.25 and then at 115.65.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.40. If that is broken, next support is at 160.85 and the final major support is at 160.48. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.10 and then at 162.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 230.55. If that is broken, next support is at 229.65 and the final major support is at 228.90.On the topside, the resistance is at 231.30 and then a major resistance at 231.90.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0069. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0004 and the final major support is at 1.9963.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0135 and then a major resistance at 2.0176.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 19, 2007

2007-09-18T19:22:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Well, a great day yesterday with the biggest surprise being the fact that the usually conservative Fed turned radical and cut the interest rates by 50 basis points rather than the expected 25 basis points. This has provided a fillip for the stock markets and hence they flew yesterday and the flight has continued with the Japanese stock market as well. Now we need to wait for the small matter of the Japanese rate statement, which i expect would not change anything, to get out of the way before we continue the upward journey in the crosses. But the cut in the interest rates is not good for the dollar and so i expect the EU and the GU to continue their upward journey. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.65. If that is broken, next support is at 115.15 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.80. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.03 and then at 116.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.25. If that is broken, next support is at 160.90 and the final major support is at 160.00. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.10 and then at 162.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 232.80. If that is broken, next support is at 232.00 and the final major support is at 231.20.On the topside, the resistance is at 233.60 and then a major resistance at 234.32.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0053. If that is broken, next support is at 1.9950 and the final major support is at 1.9885.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0156 and then a major resistance at 2.0221.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 18, 2007

2007-09-17T19:43:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So, as predicted, the crosses went down yesterday and today, for most of the day, the crosses should be ranging else it would go down. I do not see the crosses going very high from this point. Also, i do not expect the Fed to do much more than cut the rates by 0.25 which would again disappoint the markets. All in all, everything looks set for a drop in the crosses along with a big drop in GU as well. This is something which i am saying thru my gut feel though i could have taken the safe route and not predicted anything cos in this market, nothing is for sure. Anyway, all in all, it should be a good week for trading as todays rate announcement should atleast give a short term direction.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.80. If that is broken, next support is at 114.60 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.03 and then at 115.30.

EURJPY - Important support at 159.10. If that is broken, next support is at 158.65 and the final major support is at 158.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 159.65 and then at 160.10.

GBPJPY - Important support at 228.10. If that is broken, next support is at 227.20 and the final major support is at 226.56.On the topside, the resistance is at 228.90 and then a major resistance at 230.00.

GBPUSD - Important support at 1.9872. If that is broken, next support is at 1.9807 and the final major support is at 1.9745.On the topside, the resistance is at 1.9914 and then a major resistance at 1.9981.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 17, 2007

2007-09-16T19:42:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Been a bit busy over the last few days and hence could not post. Over the last few days, the crosses have had a nice run up an down which has been the pattern towards the end of the week over the past 2 weeks. The crosses keep going up over the first 3 days of the week and then start going down over the last 2 days. With the Fed rate announcement scheduled for tomorrow, we should finally be able to get some short term direction from tomorrow. As for today, it should be ranging, with a bit of profit taking towards the end of the day as many traders would not want to risk it just before the rate announcement. I personally feel that either the Fed would not cut the rates at all or if at all, would cut it by .25 both of which would disappoint the stock markets and would lead to the stocks and the crosses going down. The Fed is known to be quite conservative and hence this feeling of mine. The market has already priced in a .25% cut and so anything equal or less would lead to a drop.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.03. If that is broken, next support is at 114.70 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.42 and then at 115.70.

EURJPY - Important support at 159.70. If that is broken, next support is at 159.00 and the final major support is at 158.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 160.20 and then at 160.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 231.22. If that is broken, next support is at 230.40 and the final major support is at 229.65.On the topside, the resistance is at 231.85 and then a major resistance at 232.80.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0051. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0009 and the final major support is at 1.9945.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0117 and then a major resistance at 2.0182.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 12, 2007

2007-09-11T19:25:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

The crosses appeared to break some barriers yesterday but guess what, they seem to be bearish again. All my indicators show that the crosses are bearish and for all that you know, we might be back to the levels which we started off yesterday morning. The crosses surely do not seem to know where to go. The days when the crosses were in huge trends, which made them a treat to trade, seem to be long gone. It really does look hazy now and there does not seem to be anything in sight which would make the crosses get back into a trend, one way or the other. The US Fed rate announcement next week could help a bit but even that would be temporary i believe. So for today, it seems bearish but you never know with the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.01. If that is broken, next support is at 113.62 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 113.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.42 and then at 114.77.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.65. If that is broken, next support is at 156.90 and the final major support is at 156.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.40 and then at 158.85.

GBPJPY - Important support at 231.35. If that is broken, next support is at 230.40 and the final major support is at 229.65.On the topside, the resistance is at 232.00 and then a major resistance at 232.70.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0296. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0255 and the final major support is at 2.0229.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0336 and then a major resistance at 2.0362.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 11, 2007

2007-09-10T19:17:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Another highly volatile but ranging day yesterday. The crosses made all the way down and then came back up again and then finally ended almost where they began their day. The market is still undecided on what it needs to do and as for now, it seems to be caught between a good support as well as a resistance and there needs to be as breakout beyond any of those to see a good direction. But with the Fed rate decision scheduled for next week, the market would not want to be caught out in any direction before that and so till the Fed and the market makes up its mind, i feel that the ranging would continue. There needs to be some news to make the crosses break their range.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 113.32. If that is broken, next support is at 112.87 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 112.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 113.90 and then at 114.20.

EURJPY - Important support at 156.46. If that is broken, next support is at 155.70 and the final major support is at 155.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.15 and then at 157.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 230.04. If that is broken, next support is at 228.80 and the final major support is at 228.10.On the topside, the resistance is at 231.27 and then a major resistance at 232.05.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0263. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0246 and the final major support is at 2.0221.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0289 and then a major resistance at 2.0315.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 10, 2007

2007-09-09T19:20:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Hope all you guys had a great weekend. This was the weekend for shorts and all those who had shorts open over the weekend should have made good money when the market opened today. Now the market should go up to fill in the weekend gap and once that is completed, it should start going down again. The American session should be very interesting to see if the fall continues or the stocks make a come back today. Today should be a day for the shorts with the retracement accompanying them. I get my S and R using murray maths, history and fibs as well. I give S and R based on the normal daily range for the crosses and there would be occasions when the daily range gets exceeded. At that time a new set of S and R would come into the picture. In other words, the S and R would depend on the price level of the currency pairs.

Since i cannot anticipate huge moves everyday, thats why i cannot give S and R to cover all moves and that is the reason when somedays, the prices go beyond my S and R.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 112.50. If that is broken, next support is at 111.60 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 110.74. On the topside, the resistance is at 113.15 and then at 114.06.

EURJPY - Important support at 155.41. If that is broken, next support is at 155.00 and the final major support is at 154.14. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.80 and then at 156.69.

GBPJPY - Important support at 229.00. If that is broken, next support is at 228.05 and the final major support is at 226.10.On the topside, the resistance is at 229.70 and then a major resistance at 231.00.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0256. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0194 and the final major support is at 2.0155.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0318 and then a major resistance at 2.0357.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 7, 2007

2007-09-06T19:04:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Crazy couple of days so far with the crosses ranging but with no reason for their rise or fall. The markets continue to be unsure of where to go and what to do and they seem so confused that even the fundamental reasons which used to drive them up or down do not seem to be having the same effects now. We still have the sub prime and housing issues but they dont seem to be going down. We have the stock markets going up which should drive the crosses up but that aint happening as well. So we are caught in a tight range and i do expect the crosses to be ranging today as well. I do not see any reason for a breakout today (though you never know).
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.23. If that is broken, next support is at 114.92 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.04. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.58 and then at 116.00.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.41. If that is broken, next support is at 157.05 and the final major support is at 156.62. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.73 and then at 158.20.

GBPJPY - Important support at 232.35. If that is broken, next support is at 231.84 and the final major support is at 231.05.On the topside, the resistance is at 233.12 and then a major resistance at 233.95.

GBPUSD - Important support at 2.0164. If that is broken, next support is at 2.0134 and the final major support is at 2.0088.On the topside, the resistance is at 2.0212 and then a major resistance at 2.0259.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 5, 2007

2007-09-04T20:00:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Nice day yesterday with the crosses going all the way down and then back all the way up so that they ended the day where they began from. The crosses still seem undecided on which direction to take. The fundamental reasons still persist which want the market to go down while the technicals want the market to go up. This unclear situation should continue through and hopefully in about 2 weeks time , we should have a clear direction.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses:-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.87. If that is broken, next support is at 115.60 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.43. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.42 and then at 116.68.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.71. If that is broken, next support is at 157.00 and the final major support is at 156.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.45 and then at 158.90.

GBPJPY - Important support at 233.45. If that is broken, next support is at 232.80 and the final major support is at 231.95.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.40 and then a major resistance at 235.02.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 4, 2007

2007-09-03T18:50:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Yesterday was a ranging day for the crosses. All the crosses moved within very tight ranges which provided very little opportunity for the swing traders. Only those who are good at scalping, the very few of them, could have had a profitable day yesterday. With a ranging day yesterday, it makes today very interesting as there should be a breakout in either direction today and if it comes, it should be quite strong. With some important news to be realeased today, it should be quite interesting. Lets watch out.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.85. If that is broken, next support is at 115.60 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.43. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.0 and then at 116.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.81. If that is broken, next support is at 157.41 and the final major support is at 156.95. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.10 and then at 158.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 233.70. If that is broken, next support is at 232.90 and the final major support is at 232.20.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.40 and then a major resistance at 235.02.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for September 03, 2007

2007-09-02T19:11:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Hope all you guys had a nice weekend. Now the new week brings with it new opportunities. Will it be bullish or bearish? For any good trader, it really should not matter. I feel that it would always be best to close all your open trades before the weekend unless you are a long term trader. This could mean that you might have to close it with a loss but so what? When we dont know what is going to happen next minute how do we know what might happen in 2 days time. So close it over the weekend, enjoy your weekend and adapt yourself to whatever the currency does in the new week rather than sitting and praying and fretting and fuming over the weekend trying to find what way the trend would go in the coming week and praying that it goes in the direction of ur trade. Always follow the market and dont try to predict what the market is going to do. This is much easier.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.58. If that is broken, next support is at 115.25 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.84. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.97 and then at 116.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.81. If that is broken, next support is at 157.41 and the final major support is at 156.95. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.26 and then at 159.05.

GBPJPY - Important support at 232.81. If that is broken, next support is at 232.06 and the final major support is at 231.20.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.12 and then a major resistance at 235.02.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 30, 2007

2007-08-29T19:37:00.001-07:00

Hi All,

Lol. So the trend changes again. This is a nightmare for long term traders and a dream come true for swing traders and scalpers. The market does not seem to know which direction it has to go. On the one hand, the technicals and the fundamental rate difference favor the longs. On the other hand, there are the sub prime issues and others which favor the shorts and the market does not know what to do. Each news and each statement is being studied closely to see which of these is more serious. This would continue through till September when the news with regard to August (which was when the sub prime issues cropped up) would get released and that would tell us the true picture of how serious this issue is. Also, with rate cuts and hikes expected, things would start becoming clear next month. Till then, this kind of trading would continue. As for today, let me stick my neck out and say that today is a day for longs. So bulls can enjoy and traders can hunt with the bulls. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.63. If that is broken, next support is at 115.39 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.84. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.29 and then at 116.86.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.81. If that is broken, next support is at 157.03 and the final major support is at 156.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.59 and then at 159.12.

GBPJPY - Important support at 232.81. If that is broken, next support is at 232.06 and the final major support is at 231.25.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.38 and then a major resistance at 235.94.

If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 29, 2007

2007-08-28T18:55:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So we are back to being bearish again. The tide seems to have turned yesterday and we had a good huge correction yesterday. How long would this go, whether it is short term or long term, no one can really say but there does not seem to be any news on the horizon which would change the fundamental picture drastically anytime soon. It is a tough thing to trade for the long term investors. The crosses were usually the ones which had a nice long trends going in one direction or the other but now we see them switching trends every week which would be tough on them. But this kind of volatility is a dream for swing traders and scalpers. So all those traders out there, join the bears and enjoy your trades. The main idea of trading is to trade what you see and go along with the markets rather than try and outgues it. If the market falls, go with it, if it rises, go with it as well.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 113.64. If that is broken, next support is at 113.15 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 112.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.03 and then at 114.70.

EURJPY - Important support at 154.40. If that is broken, next support is at 153.20 and the final major support is at 151.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.10 and then at 156.20.

GBPJPY - Important support at 226.90. If that is broken, next support is at 225.10 and the final major support is at 224.10.On the topside, the resistance is at 228.05 and then a major resistance at 229.74.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 28, 2007

2007-08-27T19:19:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
It was a boring day yesterday with not much action till the US session. The traders expected the existing home sales to lead to action but it came in as expected. The stock market fell yesterday and this led to a good retracement in the crosses. It should be an interesting day today. The lower time frames are pointing downwards but the 4H is still bullish. It is a bit confusing now and the best thing to do (if you are not sure what to do ) is to wait for the London markets to open. They usually favor the European currencies and with them coming back after a holiday, we might see the crosses rise or they might choose to go with the current trend. We need to wait and see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.55. If that is broken, next support is at 115.25 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.82. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.00 and then at 116.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.64. If that is broken, next support is at 157.05 and the final major support is at 156.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.80 and then at 158.41.

GBPJPY - Important support at 232.00. If that is broken, next support is at 231.37 and the final major support is at 230.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 232.33 and then a major resistance at 233.50.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 27, 2007

2007-08-26T19:16:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So another new days today. I expect the volatility to be less toda atleast until the start of the NY session as today is a bank holiday in the UK. But todays news should provide great volatility at the beginning of the NY session with Trichet speaking and also the existing home sales news also to be released. The existing home sales should provide the short term direction as it would be directly related to the interest rates and housing credits problems. I still maintain the stance that the overall direction i bullish though we may have the occasional retracements. All in all, an interesting day ahead.

Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 116.18. If that is broken, next support is at 115.88 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.45 and then at 116.80.

EURJPY - Important support at 158.54. If that is broken, next support is at 157.75 and the final major support is at 157.07. On the topside, the resistance is at 159.40 and then at 159.91.

GBPJPY - Important support at 234.50. If that is broken, next support is at 233.60 and the final major support is at 232.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 235.23 and then a major resistance at 236.00.

Happy Trading!!!

Where are GBPJPY and other crosses headed to?

2007-08-26T07:29:00.000-07:00

Hi All,So just 2 weeks back, we had this great fall in all the crosses and the crosses feel to record lows. Now last week, we ended up with a big rise. Now where do the crosses go from here? Two weeks back, i had said that the crosses would rise in September but that seems to be happening sooner than i expected. With all this, and with my analysis, it looks as though the crosses would rise to their pre-August levels by the end of September. The GJ should rise to 250 or even more within the next 5 weeks (end of September). Likewise with the other crosses. Of course, there would be the rectracements, but these retracements would not last for more than a couple of days and should not take Gj, for example, below 230 once it manages to crosses 235.
So all those who are interested in long term investments can load up their longs. The weekly technicals have started moving up already. What about the fundamentals, some may ask. What about sub prime, interest rates etc etc? All these existed even before May and these would continue to exist. The US economy has not become so weak overnight. We had a huge correction just for a week and now the normal service has been restored for longs. Does that mean that the economy was weak only for a week? No.
Every country has its fundamental problems with its economy and its just that these get exaggerated when things start going on. When the currency starts falling, people start looking around for reasons to attribute to the fall and they come up with variety of reasons. The same problems which existed during the fall did exist 3 mnths before the actual fall came and they continue to exist even now. But where have all factors and reasons gone when the currencies were falling?
It is all a question of basic rise and fall of currencies as a cycle over a period of time. When the GBP was rising to record highs, i had written that it would have to fall back to its original price of around 1.96 sometime soon and it did within 45 days. Now it is slowly going back up again. No country can afford to have either a weak currency or a very strong currency as well. If we take GBP and USD, lets assume that GBP is rising during a mnth as economic news out of USA is very weak and news out of GB is very strong. So the GBPUSD continues to rise but then this would slowly start affecting the economy of the respective countries. Importers and exporters would be the first to start feeling this effect as they start getting less and less GBP and more and more USD. This creates an imbalance and this starts reflecting in all spheres of life like cost of various products, profits etc. This effect would slowly begin to show in the economic news that are released over the next mnth or so. These economic news would show that economy of GB is weakening due to the weak USd and the economy of USA is strengthening due to this imbalance. Once such economic news started filtering out, the correct would take place which would correct the imbalance.
This is exactly what happened for the GBPUSD over the months of June, July and August. In June and part of July, GB was strengthening and USD was falling. This started affecting the economies and created imbalance and this was reflected in the news released from GB and USA in the later part of July and beginning of August which showed bad results from GB and quite good results from USA and this led to a correction in the pair to correct the imbalance.
Same principle would apply to the crosses as well and you can see the effect of all this in the forthcoming weeks and this imbalance would be set right by the end of September. So may the bulls enjoy!!!
If you are interested in joining my trading group/ managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com

Supports and Resistances for August 23, 2007

2007-08-22T19:30:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So, as expected, the crosses did rise today though a bit sooner than i thought. I thought that the rise would begin once the rate statement has been made but it looks as though that it chose to do it a bit sooner. The longs seem to be very strong now and the momentum seems to be on the upper side. But a word of caution though. I was looking at my charts and the charts indicate a dip. But the fundamentals are usually stronger than the technicals and as the fundamentals differ a bit from the technicals, it is better to \wait for the resistances to be broken or for the news to get released before entering into the market. Patience is the key here. There are always pips to be made both long and short. So there is no hurry. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 115.84. If that is broken, next support is at 115.50 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.02 and then at 116.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 157.00. If that is broken, next support is at 156.40 and the final major support is at 155.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.83 and then at 158.35.

GBPJPY - Important support at 230.44. If that is broken, next support is at 229.66 and the final major support is at 228.54.On the topside, the resistance is at 231.23 and then a major resistance at 234.25.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 22, 2007

2007-08-21T18:54:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Phew..Yesterday was a very choppy day for trading. Except for those who are masters at scalping, it would have been very difficult for anyone to make much money yesterday. Though the range for the day was good and high as well, there was no sense of direction to the movement. Swing traders rely on trends to develop so that they can trade in the direction of the trend, but yesterday the crosses were moving up and down repeatedly with no sense of direction screwing up the indicators as well. Just take out a chart of yesterday and see the price movement as well as how the indicators responded to that and then u will understand what i mean. So unless, you are good at scalping (which very few are), pls stay out of the market until a good trend develops. The market would be great for longs in September and i suggest that you all save up your money for that period and not waste it now.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.05. If that is broken, next support is at 113.72 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 113.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.84 and then at 115.60.

EURJPY - Important support at 153.50. If that is broken, next support is at 153.10 and the final major support is at 152.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 154.23 and then at 154.65.

GBPJPY - Important support at 226.56. If that is broken, next support is at 225.25 and the final major support is at 224.60.On the topside, the resistance is at 226.92 and then a major resistance at 228.13.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 21, 2007

2007-08-20T19:04:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So yesterday did indeed turn out to be good for the longs as expected. I would say that today also it would be good for the longs and the price of GJ for example should reach around 231 today. There are huge resistances in between (as specified below and these need to be broken for it to reach the specified targets. All these do not mean that the carry trades are going to resume and that everything is going to be fine with them. After touching the specified targets, there could again be a correction in the crosses sometime later this week and maybe the beginning of next week and the big rise would start either during the end of August or the beginning of September. Next month would be a good month for the longs in the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.75. If that is broken, next support is at 114.04 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 113.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 115.57 and then at 115.80.

EURJPY - Important support at 154.68. If that is broken, next support is at 153.70 and the final major support is at 153.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.66 and then at 156.28.

GBPJPY - Important support at 227.60. If that is broken, next support is at 226.50 and the final major support is at 225.00.On the topside, the resistance is at 229.40 and then a major resistance at 231.10.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 20, 2007

2007-08-19T18:45:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Hope you guys had a nice weekend. The past week saw some of the best volatility that the crosses have ever seen and expect almost similar volatility this week as well as the market tries to reevaluate various things and slowly begins to settle down. My guess is that the market would start to settle down sometime next week. Today, i would like to stick my neck out and say that it would be good for the longs and who knows, as far as GJ is concerned, we might reach 230 by today. Lets see though.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-

USDJPY - Important support at 114.02. If that is broken, next support is at 113.61 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 112.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.87 and then at 115.60.

EURJPY - Important support at 152.95. If that is broken, next support is at 151.51 and the final major support is at 150.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.15 and then at 156.18.

GBPJPY - Important support at 225.00. If that is broken, next support is at 221.80 and the final major support is at 220.75.On the topside, the resistance is at 226.55 and then a major resistance at 228.10.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 17, 2007

2007-08-16T18:59:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Ha Ha...What a day yesterday!! Must have been a historic day with all the crosses seeing some huge historic falls yesterday. And there seems no sign of a let up. We have had a good retracement in all the crosses and they seem to be ready for the next fall down. Yesterday was a dream for all traders as all you had to do was short, wait for retracement, short again and so on and i am sure that many traders would have made atleast 600 pips yesterday. As for today, it remains to be seen whether the lows of Feb - March are broken by the crosses. The low for GJ at that time was around 221 and that would act as a huge huge support for the down move. When would this wild swinging end? Your guess is as good as mine. One of the most important lessons that the market teaches you is that you should not try to outguess the market. Just go with the trend and do what the market does and not what it plans to do. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today (though considering the fall yesterday, i do not know how valid these would be ..:-)) :-

USDJPY - Important support at 113.26. If that is broken, next support is at 112.55 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 111.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.12 and then at 114.90.

EURJPY - Important support at 151.50. If that is broken, next support is at 150.93 and the final major support is at 149.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 153.15 and then at 154.70.

GBPJPY - Important support at 222.80. If that is broken, next support is at 221.80 and the final major support is at 220.75.On the topside, the resistance is at 225.00 and then a major resistance at 226.68.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 16, 2007

2007-08-15T19:01:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

So, the fall continues!! There does not seem to be any great respite for the crosses. Yesterday, there was a rectracment for about 250 pips which was long overdue but by the end of the US session the crosses were back to where they started the day. With this lack of strength, it now looks more likely that there will be a further fall in the crosses. The hourlies are pointing up while the 4H is pointing down which shows that there will be a bit of rectracement before the fall resumes. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 116.40. If that is broken, next support is at 116.20 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.80. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.72 and then at 117.20.

EURJPY - Important support at 156.25. If that is broken, next support is at 155.90 and the final major support is at 155.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.05 and then at 157.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 231.25. If that is broken, next support is at 230.70 and the final major support is at 229.75.On the topside, the resistance is at 232.23 and then a major resistance at 232.80.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 15, 2007

2007-08-14T19:35:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
So, as indicated, all the pairs seem to be going on the downside with the risk aversion trend dominating everything else. As indicated a couple of weeks back, the effect of the weak dollar has started reflecting on the various economies as a result of which the economic news from the countries, esp countries like GB, has been shown to be weak This has led to correction in the value of the various currency pairs though they were at historic levels just a couple of weeks ago. More news is slated for today both from GB and US and this should be very interesting. Still, there does not seem to be any respite for the carry trades and i guess today should be a down day as well. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 117.22. If that is broken, next support is at 117.01 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 116.80. On the topside, the resistance is at 117.52 and then at 117.87.

EURJPY - Important support at 158.54. If that is broken, next support is at 157.82 and the final major support is at 157.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 169.02 and then at 159.38.

GBPJPY - Important support at 233.68. If that is broken, next support is at 233.02 and the final major support is at 232.42.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.53 and then a major resistance at 235.84.

Happy Trading!!!

My account statement

2007-08-13T19:40:00.000-07:00

Hi,

Professional traders dont reveal their account statements but i have seen that many comments have been passed in this blog and in forums about how i trade. So i have been forced into a situation where i need to show my account statement to prove myself. Attached is the statement for the past 3 mnths in one of my mini account that i have. Judge by yourself.

http://www.geocities.com/ns_karthik/Statement1559458-karthik.htm

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for August 14, 2007

2007-08-13T19:21:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

The market still looks as if it is highly unstable. The volatility is huge with the crosses suffering the brunt of it. But things now seem to be looking good for the downside. Some of the major supports have been broken. These supports have not been smashed by the prices but rather have been slowly, steadily and systematically taken down and i feel that those supports should now act as resistances. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 117.80. If that is broken, next support is at 117.55 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.12 and then at 118.45.

EURJPY - Important support at 160.20. If that is broken, next support is at 159.80 and the final major support is at 159.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 1602.58 and then at 161.00.

GBPJPY - Important support at 236.70. If that is broken, next support is at 235.60 and the final major support is at 234.86.On the topside, the resistance is at 237.53 and then a major resistance at 237.94.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 13, 2007

2007-08-12T19:04:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

After a tumultous last week, we hope to see a nice steady and much more predictable week this time around. As of this writing, the market seems to have settled down and things look good for longs though it is only during the London session that the correct direction will be known. As you guys might have read, the central banks are also acting to keep the market stable. This has been in 2 ways by the market with one part considering it as good as it is assuring to know that banks would act and not allow the markets to tumble uncontrollably while on the other hand, the fact that the banks had to interfere shows that something is not right with the markets. In any case, things should slowly start to settle down and in abt 3-4 weeks time, everything should be back to normal. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.21. If that is broken, next support is at 117.95 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.35 and then at 118.70.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.72. If that is broken, next support is at 161.20 and the final major support is at 160.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.50 and then at 163.20.

GBPJPY - Important support at 239.05. If that is broken, next support is at 238.50 and the final major support is at 237.46.On the topside, the resistance is at 239.83 and then a major resistance at 240.65.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 10, 2007

2007-08-09T19:19:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Its been an awesome week so far with great volatility and wild swinging in both sides. Even small news events seem to shake the market a lot and that is not a good sign. One of the advantages of the forex market has been its liquidity which ensured that the market does not over react to small news events which would give it stability and a bit of predictability. But the last few days, the liquidity seems to have become less which makes the market high volatile and makes it react to small news events, events which would not have caused a 50 pip move about 2 mnths back are now leading to 200 pip moves. Lets hope that this gets blown over soon. Yesterday, was a bad day for longs but with the crosses near their weekly supports, we should see some upmove. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 117.95. If that is broken, next support is at 117.63 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.70 and then at 119.30.

EURJPY - Important support at 160.90. If that is broken, next support is at 160.20 and the final major support is at 159.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 161.70 and then at 162.50.

GBPJPY - Important support at 238.27. If that is broken, next support is at 237.80 and the final major support is at 237.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 239.03 and then a major resistance at 240.65.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 9, 2007

2007-08-08T18:54:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

How was that??!! For so many days, the crosses were ranging and it was yesterday that i said that it would be good for longs and they all rose like a phoenix..the GJ had a 400 pip rise. Apart from that the crosses also had a nice retracement back to the 38.2% fib of their last fall late in the US session. The 400 pip rise in the GJ indicated that there would be a retracement sometime before the next rise up and this retracement came late in the US session. With that retracement and the subsequent rise, i think the crosses are ready for a move updwards though all the crosses are near very big resistances right now. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 119.45. If that is broken, next support is at 119.00 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 118.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 119.85 and then at 120.15.

EURJPY - Important support at 164.85. If that is broken, next support is at 164.50 and the final major support is at 164.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 165.40 and then at 165.70.

GBPJPY - Important support at 243.72. If that is broken, next support is at 242.90 and the final major support is at 242.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 244.07 and then a major resistance at 244.75.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 08, 2007

2007-08-07T19:18:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Yesterday was a topsy turvy day with the crosses running up and down. The news from USA got released and so far it looks a bit good for the USD though not entirely so. It should be an interesting day today and we need to watch out for how the markets react to the rate statement yesterday. I personally believe that today would be a good day for longs though i guess many of the traders would be bearish. My indicators show that the time has come for longs though the signals are not confirmed yet. The inflation report is also due out from GB today and that should also put in an interesting euro session today. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.75. If that is broken, next support is at 118.55 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 118.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.94 and then at 119.15.

EURJPY - Important support at 163.25. If that is broken, next support is at 162.55 and the final major support is at 161.86. On the topside, the resistance is at 164.10 and then at 164.50.

GBPJPY - Important support at 240.13. If that is broken, next support is at 239.85 and the final major support is at 238.95. On the topside, the resistance is at 240.65 and then a major resistance at 241.25.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 07, 2007

2007-08-06T19:16:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

The crosses made a good comeback yesterday but still they dont seem to have broken out of the range. I still feel that the shorts would be favored and that the rise which we had seen yesterday was just a retracement rather than a change of trend.Some important news are to be released both from USD and GBP during the course of the week which should make the trading of the crosses quite interesting. But as you can see, it still continues with the range trading with no sight of any breakouts. Yesterday, we saw both the high and low of the range being visited and today we might see some more of the same as well. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.36. If that is broken, next support is at 117.95 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.75 and then at 119.10.

EURJPY - Important support at 163.35. If that is broken, next support is at 162.55 and the final major support is at 161.86. On the topside, the resistance is at 164.10 and then at 164.50.

GBPJPY - Important support at 240.65. If that is broken, next support is at 239.70 and the final major support is at 238.95. On the topside, the resistance is at 241.85 and then a major resistance at 242.30.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 06, 2007

2007-08-05T19:18:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
The crosses seem to be quite weak today and the overall trend seems to be down. But it remains to be seen whether the ranges are broken atleast today. For the last 2 weeks, we have seen the some supports have been very strong and have not been broken yet and so it would be interesting to see whether they are broken today. If they are, then we would be seeing another fresh bout of selling on all the crosses. Lets see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 117.55. If that is broken, next support is at 117.20 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 116.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 117.92 and then at 118.55.

EURJPY - Important support at 162.15. If that is broken, next support is at 161.63 and the final major support is at 160.94. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.50 and then at 163.00.

GBPJPY - Important support at 240.07. If that is broken, next support is at 239.10 and the final major support is at 238.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 240.65 and then a major resistance at 241.50.

Happy Trading!!!

Whats with the Crosses??

2007-08-04T20:11:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
For the past 1-2 weeks, all the crosses seem to have been caught in a range, a big range in fact with no breakout on either side. Thankfully for traders like us, the range is not very small as to make it impossible to trade but the range is big enough to allow us to take trades on either side. But the important point here is that no trend has been established on either side and so big gains cannot be got especially for those who are in for the long term as we are not sure which side the crosses are going to go.

Till about a month back, we were sure that the crosses were moving up and so all that one had to do was take a trade in the long direction and simply wait to rake in the profits. This was possible as the trend was up. But now, there is no clear trend and this makes only range trading possible and not swing trading. This type of trading is useful for day traders but no good for long term trades as they are still not sure which side they need to take the trade.

But why this indecision in the crosses? One of the reasons would be risk aversion, another would be the weak dollar and another could be the stock markets. As can be seen, there is a general aversion towards risk over the past 2 week and the money is now being taken out of the carry trades and moved on to places where there are lesser risks. Second, the dollar is very weak nowadays, so weak that it cant even seem to rise against the yen, which is one of the weakest currencies. This weak UJ pair tends to pull down the other crosses though the currencies like GBP, EUR etc. in themselves might be strong. Next, the global stock markets have all been overheated and they need some cooling down which is what we can see happening over the last few days in some of the stock markets.

I assume that Japan would raise their interest rates In August or atleast in September which would lead to even more correction in the crosses in the short term once the rates are increased. But again, the fundamental difference in the interest rates would continue to persist which should see the crosses rise again. It should be an interesting few months ahead.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for August 3, 2007

2007-08-02T19:15:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Another up and down day with the prices for all crosses being caught in a range. The longs seem to be favored now but there needs to be a breakout from the range to confirm any trend, long or short. The crosses have a tendency to respect the fibos a lot and sometimes they respect it too much and stay within the ranges. Yesterday, it was also noticed that not only the crosses, but the major pairs were also within specified ranges and it was only during the end of the day that the GU and the other majors managed to have a small breakout and they carried along the crosses with them. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 119.14. If that is broken, next support is at 118.90 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 118.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 119.32 and then at 119.56.

EURJPY - Important support at 163.28. If that is broken, next support is at 162.63 and the final major support is at 162.00. On the topside, the resistance is at 163.50 and then at 164.06.

GBPJPY - Important support at 242.15. If that is broken, next support is at 240.80 and the final major support is at 240.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 243.05 and then a major resistance at 244.20.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for August 2, 2007

2007-08-01T18:22:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
Another confusing day with the crosses going here and there and everywhere and finally ending up where they started from. It is a clear sign that the crosses dont seem to know where to go. They try to break down but are being held up by huge supports which keep pushing them back. The trend has again changed downwards but the huge supports need to be broken for them to make any more headway. The more the supports hold, the more likely they are to bounce back. For now, i can see 2-3 times over the last few days that the supports have held. The dollar is also very weak which is what is trying to drag the crosses down. Lets see how long the crosses hold. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.75. If that is broken, next support is at 118.45 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 118.00. On the topside, the resistance is at 119.12 and then at 119.53.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.97. If that is broken, next support is at 161.00 and the final major support is at 160.44. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.50 and then at 163.35.

GBPJPY - Important support at 240.55. If that is broken, next support is at 240.09 and the final major support is at 239.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 241.15 and then a major resistance at 242.20.

Happy Trading!!!

Chat Feature Removed

2007-08-01T18:17:00.001-07:00

Hi All,
Sorry guys but i had to remove the chat feature that was available in this blog as it was being misused from both sides both for good and bad reasons. Initially, i had started using the chat feature as i thought it would be a good and easy way to share comments and opinions but as some of you might have seen, over the last few days, it was being used for a slanging match. So i thought that it was entirely inappropriate and useless to have such a feature with no way of controlling it and hence it has been removed. It is a pity that something which was used properly had to be removed cos of few jokers but i guess thats the way it works.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for August 1, 2007

2007-07-31T19:23:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Well a confusing day in total with the crosses trying to go up but being repeatedly pulled down by Uj which looks really weak. Finally, towards the end of the day, the bears started to win and now they are on top. This has ensured that the downtrend continues for some more days. Yesterday, there was a brief respite which gave the impression that there might be a change of trend but so far it looks like the up time yesterday was just a retracement and now the shorts are in favor again. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.35. If that is broken, next support is at 118.00 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.62. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.75 and then at 119.22.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.76. If that is broken, next support is at 161.33 and the final major support is at 160.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 162.50 and then at 163.26.

GBPJPY - Important support at 240.55. If that is broken, next support is at 240.09 and the final major support is at 239.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 241.15 and then a major resistance at 242.20.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 31, 2007

2007-07-30T18:43:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
So the crosses have made a very strong comeback with the GJ having made up 200 pips in the space of a few hours. With that, i feel that the trend has changed and it should be good for longs in the crosses today. As i had said previously, except for the drop in the stocks and a sudden dip in the risk appetite, there was not much change fundamentally in any of the crosses and i guess it was just a case of good fast correction. This correction was needed and long overdue. This correction showed the importance of identifying trend changes and also the importance of having good stop losses. With this ability, you could make 1000 pips upwards and 1000 pips downwards and could then afford to lose 200 pips when the trend changes. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.75. If that is broken, next support is at 118.35 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 118.00. On the topside, the resistance is at 119.22 and then at 119.53.

EURJPY - Important support at 162.45. If that is broken, next support is at 161.38 and the final major support is at 160.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 163.40 and then at 164.05.

GBPJPY - Important support at 241.50. If that is broken, next support is at 240.55 and the final major support is at 239.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 242.20 and then a major resistance at 243.55.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 30, 2007

2007-07-29T19:05:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

As of this writing, the market is still ranging between the support and resistance with no clear sign of direction yet. I suppose the direction will emerge as the european open nears. There has not been any fundamental change in the markets over the past 2 days and so i expect the downward trend to continue. But keep your stop losses ready as these crosses are beasts and can do anything anytime. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.34. If that is broken, next support is at 117.90 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 118.75 and then at 119.51.

EURJPY - Important support at 161.02. If that is broken, next support is at 160.35 and the final major support is at 159.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 161.68 and then at 162.38.

GBPJPY - Important support at 239.02. If that is broken, next support is at 238.10 and the final major support is at 237.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 239.97 and then a major resistance at 240.63.

Happy Trading!!!

Forthcoming Week!!

2007-07-29T08:55:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So what does the forthcoming week hold for us? As said in this blog at the beginning of last week, the GBPUSD did have a big drop which was long overdue. Lot of people had been predicting this drop for the past 2 months but the market showed only two weeks back that the drop was coming and that was why i had specified in the blog last week that there would be a drop and it did come along.

I feel that the GBPUSD will drop further in the coming 2 weeks as the news coming out of GB would show the bad effects of a weakening dollar on the British economy. As for the crosses, that was something that was not expected as it started only on the second or third day of the week and there was nothing fundamentally changed over those days.

Anyway, for whatever reason it might be, there was indeed a huge drop in all the crosses which made trading very easy last week. That is why it is always good to trade with the trend and have strict stop losses. The trend was down last week and all that a trader had to do was go short and wait for them to go down as that was the trend. If indeed a trader went long to trade the pivots and supports, strict stop losses had to be followed as we are going against the trade. With this knowledge and strategy, there is no way that a trader can lose money under such conditions.

It is good to make 1000 pips in one trend and again 1000 pips in the opposite trend and lose 200 pips during the change of trend rather than lose 1000 pips trying to trade against the trend.

One thing which every trader should learn is not to outguess the market. No one is bigger, better or smarter than the market. So stop outguessing the market and try to react to what the market does and says. The quicker you react, the more money you make. If you try and outguess the market and predict something which you feel might be coming will only leave you with egg on your face.

So just keep watching the market movements and just try to ride the trend and the wave and you should be fine. Dont try to act too smart and think that you can outsmart the market and catch the very top and bottom. Sorry, no one can do that. So just trade the trend and enjoy the pips.

As for what the crosses would do in the forthcoming week, i have not seen anything change fundamentally over the last 2 days and so i think initially atleast the fall will continue. Once again, the market makers have been very smart and have placed the crosses at important supports and it remains to be seen which direction they take the market in.

Happy Trading!!!

Forex online Training course

2007-07-27T23:38:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Please read fully. I have been running my signal service and managed accounts service for a few months now. Initially, it was restricted to my friends alone but last few weeks, i have opened it out to new people who are interested in this. Along with this new set of people has arrived a new set of problems. With my friends, it was easy that all i had to do was give them signals and since they already have an idea of the basics of forex, how it works and all that.

But with this new set of people, i have got subscribers who dont even know the basics of forex. My signals are 85% accurate and with this kind of accuracy, it should be possible to make atleast a decent amount of money. Some of my subscribers dont know anything about forex and all that they know is to click a few buttons here and there. And also, since i give signals all through the day and give close to 8-9 signals minimum per day (unlike others who give only 2-3 signals), they need to be online and they need to understand forex, entry, exit, lots, money management etc to make full use of the signals.

Some of my subscribers come online only for a few mins a day and they expect to generate millions just by clicking some buttons without knowing the basics of it. This is a sure way to disaster. That set me thinking and with that is this proposal.

I am launching an online forex training course. It would cover all the basics of forex, when to enter, when to exit, indicators, money management, fibos, development of systems and all that associated with forex. Each person who joins would get my personal attention and it wont be a generalised class as i understand that the needs of each one is different. The course would be of 30 hrs duration and it can be done online thru messenger, skype, videos etc. The course would also involve explanation of charts and all that. This course would prepare you for all that is connected with forex. I hope to complete the 30 hrs of classes in 2 weeks time and after that, for 2 months i would support with all the answers to all your questions, trades, doubts etc. I would start this course only if atleast 10 people join. The course fees is $200. Those who are interested can mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com.

Happy Trading!!!

Fantastic couple of days for Trading

2007-07-27T10:33:00.001-07:00

Hi All,
Fantastic 2 days for trading. Huge falls and rises as well in all the crosses providing huge and perfect opportunities to make tons of pips. The crosses swung wildly in the downward direction with the GJ losing 400 pips each day. But the great things about this was the way it moved.

The idea is always to trade with the trend whether it is up or down. This two days it was very clear that the trend was down. What made it easier to trade was the fact that the S and R were also respected in the way we expected them to be. This was true of all crosses. They did fall but they also did stop at important supports and rose again until the next resistance and then they resumed their fall.

In such cases, it is very easy to trade as all you had to do ws wait for the price to hit the support, go long till the next resistance and when the resistance is hit, close the long and go short again. All this could be done with very small SL which makes all of these trades extra special and we could alternate between longs and shorts.

Last two days, more than 600 pips were made by us just by following the above procedure for all JPY crosses (usd,eur,gbp,nzd,aud,cad) and also gbpusd and gbpchf. Of course, those who could not get it right would have been in serious trouble over the past couple of days due to the huge volatility but those who knew what to do, would have done very well.

Anyway, lets all take a rest now and i plan to make a small announcement over the weekend. For now, lets take our pips home and get some good rest.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 27, 2007

2007-07-26T18:41:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Well, guys, as all of you would have seen, the crosses were routed yesterday. GJ dropped 400 pips on a signale day which is something that does not happen everyday. The traders seem to be risk averse now and they have started moving on to safer investments like bonds etc. They need money to invest in these and so they are selling off their holdings in currencies and investing them in the bonds and hence the correction. As usual, the crooses end the day near some strong support, something which they have been doing for the past 4 days and it is anybody's guess which direction they would go today. As for tose people who now claim that they 'told you so', i would like to say that if you keep saying the same thing every 2 days, obviously, one of these days, you are going to get it right. Anyway, lets see how the market reacts. I would advise people to be careful knowing that these crosses are beasts, Know the S and R well and play within these S and R. If you try to outgues the market, we all know what it can do to us. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 118.75. If that is broken, next support is at 118.34 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 117.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 119.53 and then at 120.31.

EURJPY - Important support at 163.37. If that is broken, next support is at 162.49 and the final major support is at 162.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 164.05 and then at 164.62.

GBPJPY - Important support at 243.62. If that is broken, next support is at 242.97 and the final major support is at 242.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 245.28 and then a major resistance at 246.05.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 26, 2007

2007-07-25T18:42:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

So another day and as predicted the USD continues to consolidate and gain in strength a bit while the other majors begin to lose out. GU looks very weak and as i keep repeating it every day for the past 3-4 days, i feel that the downtrend has started in it. Lets see how far it goes. As for the crosses, as the UJ gains strength, this will in turn try and push the crosses up. The fall in EU and GU will drag down the crosses but the rise in UJ will try to push the crosses up and in effect, there should be a slight rise in the crosses overall. But we need to be careful as we have seen in the last few days that the minute that we think that a support is going to hold and the rise is going to begin, the support is broken and the fall continues. So be careful and react and follow what the market does.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 120.30. If that is broken, next support is at 119.95 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 119.75. On the topside, the resistance is at 121.09 and then at 121.50.

EURJPY - Important support at 164.83. If that is broken, next support is at 164.40 and the final major support is at 165.80. On the topside, the resistance is at 165.61 and then at 166.39.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.25. If that is broken, next support is at 246.80 and the final major support is at 246.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.02 and then a major resistance at 248.42.

Happy Trading!!!

And we are back!!

2007-07-25T09:56:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Today, my internet connection went down and it took me few hours to get that fixed. That was the reason that i could not update the blog today. Normal service would resume from tomorrow. But normal service in the crosses does not seem to be anywhere closeby. The crosses seem to be getting hit a lot over the past couple of days and all attempts at recovery seem to be futile.

This is something new to the crosses as far as the last few months are concerned. The crosses have always bounced back from a correction within a couple of days but this correction in the crosses seem to be going on for about a week with no sign of turning back.

This has raised my concern on wheher this could turn into a much deeper correction than initially anticipated. The GJ has already fallen 400 pips in less than a week and we have to see whether atleast now, it is able to find some solid support. Everytime it starts to hover around a support, people try to get in thinking that it would be a solid support from where the rise would begin but in the end, that support is broken as well and this has been the story for about 4-5 days now.

As for the GU, as updated in this blog a couple of days ago, it seems to have reached a top and the news from the following weeks would show the adverse effects of the weakening dollar on the economies of the important countries of this world and this would lead to weakening of the other currencies and hence strengthening of the USD. This would be seen only in the coming 2-3 weeks and hence i feel that the GU would drop further in the next 2-3 weeks. The weakening has already started with the stalling at around 2.0650 and the drop from there. Lets see how the market pans out.

Happy Trading!!!

Support and Resistance on July 24, 2007

2007-07-23T18:45:00.001-07:00

Hi all,

The crosses continue to swing wildly today as well but they are giving me more and more concern with each passing day. The crosses are like beasts and they are known to rise and fall like beasts. But usually, when they fall on a day, they recover quick and fast the next day itself and they continue on their upward journey. But they fell on Friday, receovered very slowly and only 50% of it yesterday and they fell again which is something that i have not seen in the crosses for quite sometime. The recovery has been slow and painful and they fall has been quite swift. Once again, the trigger has been the UJ and the USD looks very weak. I look around and dont find any data to push the crosses back to where they should be. So it does concern me a lot. Lets see how the markets react though.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 120.70. If that is broken, next support is at 120.45 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 120.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 121.09 and then at 121.50.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.78. If that is broken, next support is at 166.40 and the final major support is at 166.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.90 and then at 165.60.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.73. If that is broken, next support is at 248.54 and the final major support is at 248.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 249.02 and then a major resistance at 249.68.

Happy Trading!!!

Market commentary....

2007-07-23T10:07:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Very difficult day to trade today it was. Overall the direction was in favor of the longs as had been predicted in this blog but it was a yo-yo kind of day with the price moving up and down a lot. This was true not only with the major crosses but with the other crosses as well.

There was a very slow and steady upward movement which is atypical of the yen crosses which are known to rise and fall in a heap. This shows that the market is not yet decided on what to do and the market is still not decided on which is the right direction to go in. Not much data was released today and this was an added reason why there was no major movement today in any direction. Not much data is to be released tomorrow as well and so we could expect similar movement tomorrow as well.

To me, the direction to go is still in favor of the longs and this week should be interesting as the market does not know where to go. This makes trading that much more difficult and it would be well advised for the traders to be careful in their trades this week.

I somehow have a feeling that this would be the start of the correction in EU and GU which is long pending. I feel that some news to be released out of USA this week would be positive for it and would trigger the strength for the USD. This is just a gut feel rather than being based on any fundamentals or technicals. I feel that EU and GU have risen enough and the result of this huge rise and its adverse effect on the economy would be slowly reflected in the news which are to be released over the next 2 weeks.

As always, trade carefully with good, well thought out stop losses and take profits.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 23, 2007

2007-07-22T18:55:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

The crosses are swinging wildly as of this writing but they still seem to be holding on to their supports for dear life and they show good bounces from their support. Lets see how long they do so. There is not much news to be released today and so the market would have to decide its own course rather than depend on the news to drive it.Lets see how the market pans out. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 120.88. If that is broken, next support is at 120.70 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 120.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 121.50 and then at 121.88.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.18. If that is broken, next support is at 166.78 and the final major support is at 166.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.90 and then at 168.35.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.73. If that is broken, next support is at 248.54 and the final major support is at 248.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 249.02 and then a major resistance at 249.68.

Happy Trading!!!

The Week Ahead...

2007-07-22T08:41:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So what does the week ahead hold for us. The huge swings on Friday should make the trading for the Monday very interesting as everyone would feel that that would set the tone for the rest of the week. As said and shown clearly in this blog, the crosses have bounced from their fibos and it would be very important to see whether the bounce holds on Monday. The first few hours should tell us whether the bounce would hold or not.

I personally feel that the bounce should hold and the fibos below should act as good supports. But some of the crosses have their next fibo resistances just above the current prices that they are in and so it remains to be seen how soon (and whether) the resistances would be broken. If these resistances are indeed broken, we should be on our next leg up.

I believe that the crash which we saw on Friday was merely a retracement and nervous traders selling off whatever they were holding. The first sign of sure strength would make these traders come running back. But as always, there must be a trigger which should show this sure strength and convince the traders to come back.

All in all, a very interesting week ahead, a week where i still feel that the longs in the crosses would be favored.

Happy Trading!!!

Chart to explain the bounce..

2007-07-21T01:13:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

One of the comments for my last article wanted me to post a chart to explain on how and why it was a 38.2 fibo bounce for the GJ. As specified in my last post, the GJ did manage to find good support at the 38.2 of the last wave and that support managed to hold for the weekend. Monday should be an interesting day with the support below and 23.6 of the wave just above the current price as the resistance.

To explain further, i have attached a chart below to show how i have plotted the fibos. This is the first time that i am attaching an image to my blog and so pls bear with me if there is something that is wrong with it. In the chart, you can clearly see the bounce from the 38.2. Likewise, you could plot the fibos for the other crosses as well and find that they too bounced from the various fibos.

I personally, dont feel that the 50.0 fibo as being very strong support or resistance. I have noted that the 23.6, 38.2 and 61.8 as being the strong fibos. I may be wrong though.

Happy Trading!!!

Man, What a Day...

2007-07-20T09:13:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Man, what a day!! The day started off as normal, in fact it started off better for the crosses than any of the days so far in this week. And it was after the start of the US session that the crosses were ripped apart. Till that time, they were doing well and lot of traders would have got in hoping to see new highs as all things pointed in that direction.

The USD seems so weak nowadays, so weak that it cant even seem to be able to stand up and rise against the yen which is the weakest currency. Some turnaround is needed for the USD for the well being of all the other currencies. The crosses were dragged down by the USDJPY cos as all of you can see, the GU held well and so did the EU. The USDJPY dragged down the crosses. The GJ crashed through the 23.8 fibo (where i had expected it to find some good support) and finally ended at the 38.2 fibo of the last wave.

Now i feel that there should be good support at this point and this support should hold over the weekend. This is why it is always good for have good money management so that you can buy at important support and if you can manage to do that, you can never lose in this game.

Just knowing the S and R and also having good account balance and money management skills should ensure that you are profitable in the long run.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 20, 2007

2007-07-19T18:21:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
It was a good ranging day yesterday as well and not much of breakout was seen in any of the currency pair. I expected a breakout in either direction in some currency pairs based on the FOMC minutes but that does not seem to have happened. The minutes barely caused a whimper. As for today, there is not much news which would give the push in either direction for the crosses to breakout today. But that being said, midway through the asian session, as of this writing, the crosses seem quite strong, the strongest that they have been at this time all of this week. So it might turn out to be an interesting day with only the GB GDP being the highlight news for the day, which is surprising as Fridays are usually packed with lot of important news. Lets see how the market pans out. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.91. If that is broken, next support is at 121.70 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.27 and then at 122.66.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.36. If that is broken, next support is at 167.95 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.74 and then at 168.96.

GBPJPY - Important support at 250.00. If that is broken, next support is at 249.54 and the final major support is at 249.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.48 and then a major resistance at 251.00.

Happy Trading !!!

Supports and Resistances for July 19, 2007

2007-07-18T18:20:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

There was some nice range trading in the crosses yesterday and it all depends on the news that is to be released today. If the news from GB and USD is as expected, then we can expect some more range tradingfor the day. The FOMC meeting minutes are to be released today and i feel that it might cause some shift and maybe bring in some strength to the USD. We will have to wait and see. Till that time, we should be seeing some good range trading as there has been no fundamental change to any of the crosses so far. As usual though, I still favor the longs on the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.20. If that is broken, next support is at 167.90 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.82.

GBPJPY - Important support at 250.00. If that is broken, next support is at 249.54 and the final major support is at 249.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.48 and then a major resistance at 251.00.

Happy Trading !!!

Good Ranging Day..

2007-07-18T09:45:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

So all the crosses traded in a nice range today and there was some good breakout in GBPUSD....The last few days have been good to trade. Hope all of you made some good money. I had anticipated some of the currency pairs to breakout in a either direction as a lot of news was released today but the pairs did not show too much volatility today in reaction to the news.

The GBP had some positive and some expecte news and hence there was not too much fluctuation in it as well as in GBPJPY. The USD also had some good as well as bad news and i guess they balanced out each other. So not too much volatility was seen in the crosses and they held within range.

The fact that the crosses held on to their supports inspite of good pressure shows that there is a good chance of them to keep going up. There might be some retracement when the Japan markets open tomorrow but still, i think the longs would be favored.

Tomorrow, some more news from GB and US are to be released which would liven up the day. And then, the FOMC minutes would be released which would tell what the US banks are planning to do in the near future. These are the major event risks for tomorrow. I am on the lookout for some trigger news from GB which would tell that the weak dollar is weighing on the economy (which would in turn lead to a correction in GB and strength in USD) but so far, the news are related to the past months when the effect of a weak dollar would not have been felt. The next month would be the time when news related to this month would be released which might show the economy being affected by the weak USD.

So be on the lookout for any weak news from any country and keep your stop losses and take profits good and tight.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 18, 2007

2007-07-17T18:22:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

As updated yesterday, there has been nice breakouts in the crosses. As of this writing, the crosses have had some rectracement. the main reason being that some news has got released with details about the Bank of Japan meeting. The news does not continue any new details nor does it contain any details that should cause any fundamental change to the current situation. So for now, we can safely assume that the crosses are just having a retracement and they should be back any time. I still favor the longs on the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.24. If that is broken, next support is at 167.90 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.62 and then at 168.82.

GBPJPY - Important support at 249.52. If that is broken, next support is at 249.01 and the final major support is at 248.51. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.00 and then a major resistance at 250.49.

Happy Trading !!!

Finally...

2007-07-17T08:50:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So finally the much awaited breakout has well and truly arrived. And how it was. It led to a huge gain of more than 200 pips for both GBPJPY and GBPCHF.. I am sure a lot of you would have made nice little profits in this. You should have. It is always easy to make nice good profits on an upmove and in a trend when you already know that the trend is coming.

Well, if you did not know that the upmove was coming, then you need to still learn a lot more in this market. Last few days, there were quite good signs of a breakout coming along. The ranges were getting tight, the tops and bottoms kept holding on well despite the movement in other currencies and despite the various news. The more the range trading takes place, the bigger the breakout would be and thats what we saw today. The tight range trading kept going on and on for 4-5 days and the more the number of days it went on, the greater will be the speed and ferocity of the breakout when it arrives. GJ was the one which has range traded the most and today it could be seen that its range was double the normal range.

Now a bit of consolidation and a bit of retracement would take place before the next upmove. All the consolidation and retracement are just fueling up for the next move. No one knows when this would change trends and when this would stop. But as long as you are in the direction of the trend, there should not be much to worry about.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 17, 2007

2007-07-16T18:46:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
It has been quiet so far this week. No major changes in any of the currency pairs. GU seems to be the most active one making new highs everyday but it seems to be getting ready for a drop. Lot of important news scheduled to be released today both from GB as well as USA and this should make this a very interesting day. I would not like to stick my neck out and say what is going to happen except that we might expect a break in the range trading of the crosses today. The crosses have been within a small range for many days now and it only a matter of time before they break that range. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.98. If that is broken, next support is at 167.57 and the final major support is at 167.18. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.75. If that is broken, next support is at 247.40 and the final major support is at 246.88. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.44 and then a major resistance at 248.89.

Happy Trading !!!

Market Commentary...

2007-07-16T08:47:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
The crosses still seem to be caught up in a small range and they dont seem to have been able to break out of that. The only encouraging thing so far is that none of the crosses have broken to the downside which shows that they have a lot of strength and support at the bottom.

GJ seems to have been caught in the range of 247.9 and 248.9 and cannot come out of it even though GU has been making new highs daily. But this is good in a way as this gives us the opportunity to trade the S and R effectively.
Tomorrow some more important news is to be released and we need to see the effect of that. So far, the news which came out of USA today did not seem to affect the pairs in any big way and so we have to wait and see what happens with the news coming out tomorrow. The yen crosses seem to be quite strong and as said, they have quite good support. So i feel that it is only a matter of time before there is a breakout on the long side. But of course, tomorrow is a new day and with that we need to see what it brings along. The Japanese would also be back tomorrow after their holiday and we need to see how they react to the current market situation.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 16, 2007

2007-07-15T18:27:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
Quiet start to the new week with the holiday in Japan. So not much activity over the next few hours and the real trading would start with the open of the London session. The crosses look strong at the open today but they really need to break through the tight ranges that they are in for the last week for them to go even higher. Unless the range is broken on the upside soon, then we run the risk of losses. I believe that this week would be good for the longs on the crosses as usual. But there is quite a lot of important news being released from GB this week and these may tend to drag the GU and hence the GJ as well. These should make this an interesting. Lets see.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.98. If that is broken, next support is at 167.57 and the final major support is at 167.18. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.75. If that is broken, next support is at 247.40 and the final major support is at 246.88. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.44 and then a major resistance at 248.89.

Happy Trading !!!

Which indicators to use??

2007-07-14T20:16:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
There are loads and loads of indicators out there and so all the new traders are overwhelmed with the amount of information at their disposal and also at the number of indicators. They do not know which ones work and which ones do not and which ones to use and which ones not to use.

Let me tell you something. All the usual, well known indicators work well. In fact, that is why they are well known. But at the same time, dont expect the indicators to tell you what the market is going to do. Indicators are like tools like hammer, scissors etc. It is upto you to learn to use it and find out how best to use it. Like any tool, indicators can be used to make a lot of money and also lose a lot of money. It all depends on the person who uses it. Moreover, as i keep saying, indicators are always reactive and not predictive. They always tell you what has happened and not what is going to happen.

For those who are new, the moving averages are the best and the most easy indicator to understand and use. The MA crosses are one of the most frequently used systems as well. Of course, the MA is always lagging and so it is upto the user to find the best and most optimum use for it. Try to understand what it is and how it works and then find how you can use it to improve your trading. Moving average for n periods is just the average of the price for the past n periods. If the current price is above that, then it means that the current price is above the average and vice versa. The lesser the value of n , the more reactive the average is to the price. The greater the value of n, the more smoothed the MA would be. There are many types of MA like simple, exponential, linear weighted etc. and they are the most used indicators for trading systems. Throw in various types of MA with different periods on the charts and watch for patterns between the MA and the price and you will learn a lot.

Likewise, RSI is a very good indicator as well and if properly used, it can tell you the fibs, pivots and S and R to a very precise extent. It would be amazing, but if u get the right combination of inputs to RSI, it would be amazing to note how it perfectly matches the daily fib levels. You dont need to even see the fibs, just get the correct combination of TF and RSI and you can see the fib levels automatically. I have seen it happen and it is really eerie to see the relation between the RSI and the fibs. They just seem to know each other so well.

Try and play around with various indicators with various settings and time frames and find out the one which works best for you. There is no such thing as the best indicator. It is all upto how you use it and how comfotable you are with it.

Happy Trading!!!

Market Commentary...

2007-07-13T09:08:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
As expected the crosses did not do anything special for today. I thought that GBPUSD would break down and get ready for shorts but that did not happen. But the news that Iran had asked to be paid in yen has strengthened the yen and anyway lead to the downfall in the crosses as had been expected.

Practically speaking, the above news should not impact the crosses much as the import of oil will be only a very small part of the business and should not involve a lot of money. But i guess the market was waiting for something to take some profits and they did that once they got this news.

Next week, i do not see much going wrong for the crosses and should be an upweek overall once the crosses manage to get out of the ranges that they are caught in right now. Of course, it would take quite a bit of effort to come out of the ranges but they need a really big push. We need to see what would come along to give them the decisive push. If the push does not come soon, then we may see some downturn in the crosses.

I do not wish to comment on whether it is good to hold the open positions over the weekend or not. I guess there are both positives and negatives to that but i personally dont prefer having open positions over the weekend and i try and close them if they are in profit. So just look at your trading style and decide the best course of action over the weekend.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 13, 2007

2007-07-12T18:50:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
Nice ranging day on all the crosses yesterday. It is not only the trending days, the ranging days can also make you a lot of money. The crosses stayed well within the S and R and it was easy and interesting trading that. I have expanded my range of trading to include all the JPY crosses (AUD,NZD,CAD) rather than just the GJ, EJ and the UJ. This provides with a lot more choice and a lot more trades. As for today, nothing major should affect the crosses and i feel that they will continue to range today. GU looks very weak and this will be a drag on GJ which will in turn be a drag on EJ. Thats what i feel, lets see though..
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.75. If that is broken, next support is at 168.45 and the final major support is at 167.95. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.95 and then at 169.40.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.45. If that is broken, next support is at 247.55 and the final major support is at 247.08. On the topside, the resistance is at 249.03 and then a major resistance at 249.70.

Happy Trading !!!

Some more commentary....

2007-07-12T09:21:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So as predicted in this blog, the crosses have resumed their journey in favor of the longs...GJ alone seems to have been caught in a tight range which should hopefully break out in favor of the longs by tomorrow. All the crosses seem jolly well good enough for a ride in the longs.

The reason for this being that none of the statements out of Japan today spoke of any indication of any rate increase. Though they might have subtly hinted at a rate hike, overall, the tone was not as hawkish as people had expected it to be. So the buyers have come back and as can be seen GJ is back where it was and EJ has even overshot its previous highs..

All in all, a good interesting day. As for tomorrow, some news is due out of NZ and US and that should make things slightly interesting but it should not shake up the JPY crosses a great deal.

CADJPY had been threatening to break out for longs right from morning and finally after the CAD news was out, it too broke out in favor of longs..

Happy Trading!!!

Market Commentary...

2007-07-12T03:13:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So all the news is out and finally we have the situation where as expected, the JPY banks did not raise rates and Fukui did not make any untoward statements about the weakness of the JPY. So, frankly speaking, this should be good for the longs in the crosses but so far that action has not arrived in the crosses.

Usually, under such circumstances, GJ will lead the weay up for the crosses but today GU seems very weak. I think it has risen too much and so it has gone into a consolidation mode and then this would be later on followed by a breakout on either side. So the weakness in the GU is reflecting on the GJ and hence it is not able to make an upmove. Some more news is scheduled for release later on today and we will have to se after that.

I still favor longs in the crosses.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for July 12, 2007

2007-07-11T18:11:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

As specified in my previous post, the crosses have come back with strength and we just need to wait a few more hours for the rate announcement and statements from Japan which will give us the next sense of direction for the longs. I feel that even after announcements and the statements, the situation would be good for the longs and we would see further rise in the crosses. This is based on pure gut feel for the market rather than anything else. We just have to wait and see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.97. If that is broken, next support is at 167.20 and the final major support is at 166.45. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.45 and then at 168.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.45. If that is broken, next support is at 247.55 and the final major support is at 247.08. On the topside, the resistance is at 249.03 and then a major resistance at 249.70.

Happy Trading !!!

2007-07-11T08:30:00.000-07:00

Some thoughts...

Hi All,

Wild day it was, wasnt it. The crosses seemed to have come roaring back but they seemed to have come back a little too quick for my liking. Those who were in the right direction on the crosses (which is long for now) would have reaped huge profits by now. But with tomorrows rate decisions and statements from Japan, those who have not been part of the ride so far would be advised to wait before they get in.

Considering the speed with which the crosses have risen, caution is advised to those who are planning to get in now. Just watch out for the news tomorrow, confirm the direction and then jump in, there is always lots of pips to be made.

Happy Trading!!

2007-07-11T07:42:00.000-07:00

Little insight and other details about my system..

Hi All,
Lately, i have been getting a few inquiries about my system, how to join it and all that. First of all, this blog was not started to advertise my system nor was it started to build up curiosity about my system. This blog was started to share whatever little knowledge that i had gained in forex for the past 5 years. At the same time, frankly, i was quite proud of my system and so i gave out about 20% of the calls from my system on this blog so that it would help a few people in their trades. There was no other intention in starting this blog and i had stated as such in one of my earlier articles on this blog. That is why, lately, i have not shared any calls on this blog cos i was getting a feeling that those calls were acting as an advertisement for my system which was never my intention.

But due to the gaining curiosity about my system, i would like to say that my system is based on regression, fibos and moving averages and it is very simple and easy to follow and the signals simply jump out of the charts for me. It is very easy to code an EA based on my system but i do not want to do it cos i love a hands on approach to the market. This is all that i can reveal about my system at this point of time.

As for people interested in buying trading calls etc, let me reveal something which i have not done so far. I already run a signal service with 12 people in it and we are doing fine so far. The reason why i did not reveal this so far was cos, again, i did not want this blog to be considered as an advertisement for my paid services.

Those interested in purchasing my paid calls, account management etc. , pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com for further details.

Others can continue to visit this blog as normal for S and R and the occasional trading calls from my system. I solicit your continued patronage to this blog..

Happy Trading!!!

2007-07-10T19:24:00.000-07:00

Perfect Week so far for the System...

Hi All,
Last 2 days have turned out to be perfect days for my system. I have abstained from talking about my system entries over the past week or so lest it be considered as some kind of advertisement. But i could not contain this. My system showed long entry for GU at 2.0135, short entry for GJ at 247.36, short for EJ at 167.4 and short fot GBPCHF at 2.4459. Took all of them and sitting on nice profits right now....:-))))...Closed a few, have a few open. All in all, a great week so far...:-)))...

Happy Trading!!!

2007-07-10T19:06:00.000-07:00

Supports and Resistances for July 11, 2007

Hi all,

Well, there seems to have been a fundamental shift in the currency market which seems to have hugely weakened the USD. This caused the USD to weaken against all the currencies (including the JPY) and this effect was felt in the UJ which percolated down to the EJ and GJ as well. All good supports were broken for these crosses and now the market is waiting for the next push. Which direction the push would be in will depend on how the London market opens. We just have to wait and see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.09. If that is broken, next support is at 120.30 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 119.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 121.88 and then at 122.66.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.80. If that is broken, next support is at 166.40 and the final major support is at 165.80. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.50 and then at 168.00.

GBPJPY - Important support at 245.80. If that is broken, next support is at 245.30 and the final major support is at 244.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.88 and then a major resistance at 248.00.

Happy Trading !!!

2007-07-10T08:37:00.000-07:00

Market Commentary

Hi All,
Phew!! The crosses have a great practice of making us fools, dont they!! Here everyone is looking for upward movement and there we all have a nice retracement. The retracement so far has been well supported by the fibos of the last major wave and i expect the fibos to hold well through the rest of the day.

The retracements, as repeatedly address in this blog, present good opportunities to add to our longs. Each one would have a different method of finding the supports and resistances. So find the S and R using your own methods and continue buying dips. Unless there is a fundamental reason for change, thes retracements are purely for profit taking and technical purposes and should be treated as opportunities. So continue buying dips and enjoy the ride!!

Happy Trading!!

2007-07-09T18:48:00.000-07:00

Supports and Resistances for July 10, 2007

Hi all,

The crosses had a nice up down roundabout run yesterday with the bias being to the longside. Today, as of this writing, the crosses have again had a nice rectracement. I feel that this is consolidation of the previous rise in all the yen crosses and we would again see a rise in the crosses today. The Japanese Governor is slated to make a speech tomorrow and so probably till he speaks, the euphoria over the crosses would be tempered. But the bias is towards the longs. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.70 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.44 and then at 123.75.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.55. If that is broken, next support is at 167.20 and the final major support is at 166.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.20 and then at 168.85.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.15. If that is broken, next support is at 247.68 and the final major support is at 247.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.55 and then a major resistance at 248.85.

Happy Trading !!!

2007-07-09T06:52:00.000-07:00

Reversal in the crosses. Is it Possible??

This question would not make sense for experts in the fields of the crosses and the carry trades. The reason why the crosses are so very well supported is due to the fact that the interest have so much difference between the countries involved in the crosses and JPY. The Japanese banks simply refuse to raise their interest rates and they seem very happy with the way the carry trades are going on.

As long as there is such a huge difference in the interest rates, the crosses would continue to gain. Of course, there would be the periodic retracements and corrections, some deep and some not so deep, but every retracement and every correction provides an opportunity to buy and add to the longs rather than anything else. So as long as you have enough money in your account, it is always good to buy th dips in the crosses. Of course, where you buy and which price to buy it at does matter a lot. Watch out for the fibos, S and R and buy the dips.

How long can you keep buying the crosses? Well, till the JPY banks raise their interest rates or the other banks cut their interest rates, this will keep going on. The various speeches and various statements might cause retracements and corrections as the markets might fear that the speeches and statements might lead to concrete action. If such a correction occurs, unless these are supported by actual action in raising rates by the Japanese banks, the crosses would always bounce back. Till then, you can enjoy placing longs at the correct prices.

Happy Trading!!

2007-07-08T18:49:00.000-07:00

Supports and Resistances for July 9, 2007

Hi all,

As updated yesterday, the crosses are trading up today so far. The week has started out strong for them and i feel that they would continue to be strong this week and they would reach new highs. Of course, some of the news releases over the week could act as speed breakers but they would cause only minor retracements which should be handled well by the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.45. If that is broken, next support is at 123.05 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.65 and then at 124.00.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.05. If that is broken, next support is at 167.60 and the final major support is at 167.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.40 and then at 168.85.

GBPJPY - Important support at 248.15. If that is broken, next support is at 247.68 and the final major support is at 247.30. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.45 and then a major resistance at 248.85.

Happy Trading !!!

2007-07-08T08:52:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So the new week is about to start off, a week after some of the major news has released. We saw some of the currency pairs make record highs and so next week would be very important to see whether these pairs would be able to sustain their gains. The chief among these currencies is the GBP and the pairs associated with it.The GBP rose to record highs against the dollar once the rate increase news released based on the initial euphoria. But it was clear that the rate hike was already priced in and so GBP began to loiter against all the other currencies without knowing what it needs to do.

GBP retraced a bit against the USD and GJ struggled to rise while at the same time EJ had a hugerise. GBPCHF also did not have a great day whereas considering the news, this pair should have been having a great time.All in all, GBP looks quite weak in this opening of the week. We need to see how the week opens and watch for sometime to see where it goes and see its likely direction.As for the crosses, i feel that they would continue to rise this week as well with the GJ being the weakest of the 3 crosses. As you all might understand, all the rate hikes, good fundamental news etc act in the form of a cycle.

Rate hikes would look good initially but as time wears on, the rate hikes would lead to a weakening of the economy and this would get reflected in the fundamental news and hence the increase in the price of the currency pair would be tempered down by the bad news in due course of time. This is the biggest factor that is holding back the GBP from rising very well against the other currencies. The effect of the rate hike on GBP would slowly be felt from August onwards and the economic news getting released from them would show the slowdown. This is what happened with the USD which had a bad time, then followed with a good time where it rose against the other currencies and now again it seems to be struggling against many of the currencies.But the crosses have a very basic fundamental thing called carry trades favoring them and thats why they show so much rise and so much action compared to the other currency pairs.

Happy Trading!!!

Making a Predictive indicator

2007-07-07T04:02:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
As you all might be aware, most of the indicators available out there are lagging indicators, i.e. they lag the price and they always tell you what has already happened and not what is going to happen. This the major drawback of all indicators. It would be great to have an indicator which would tell you what is going to happen in the next time frame. Recently, efforts have started to be made on making predictive indicators but i am not too sure of how successful they can be.

I always believe that all indicators, EAs etc. should be based on price action and simple mathematics rather than any complicated strategy. Its not that lot of traders sit with complicated mathematical systems and then trade the market. Most of the professional traders and banks simply trade what they see, that is, they trade the price action. So i feel that any indicator should take care of the price action and simple maths. I believe that fibos could give us a good idea of predicting the market but they too tell us possible points at which the price can stop but they dont tell us which point is mostly likely to be the stop point. Elliott waves too tell us only the possible stop points and not the exact stop point.

Last few days, i have been trying to come up with some idea for making a predictive indicator but i have been unsuccessful so far. I would like to welcome any ideas from anyone for such an indicator. If some good idea comes out, we can maybe try and make an indicator based on that. Lets try to keep the maths simple, maybe we could use probability theory as well but i guess there should be some way to predict the close price of the next time frame atleast within a range of 10 pips. Lets see what comes out as we continue our search.

Happy Trading!!

GBPCHF anmd GBPJPY..

2007-07-06T05:04:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Both GBPJPY and GBPCHF seem primed for a breakout though the signals have not been confirmed yet. Both seem to be ready to move on the long side for about 40 pips..Lets see how they go..

Supports and Resistances on July 06, 2007

2007-07-05T18:13:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
As updated in the commentary yesterday, there was not too much volatility in the crosses yesterday as the rate hikes were offset by good data out of the USA. Today i feel that it would be a good day for the long in the crosses. The crosses seem to be caught in tight ranges and they are waiting for a breakout. Lets hope that the breakout would be on the long side.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.00. If that is broken, next support is at 166.80 and the final major support is at 166.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.

Happy Trading !!!

Market Commentary..

2007-07-05T09:17:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So today all the news has been released but still we did not see too much volatility in the crosses and they managed to stay within a range. GBP showed good volatility but the fact the good news for GBP was compensated by the good news in USD soon after dampened the effects on the crosses and hence they did not have much volatility to show for it..

Now that the news have got released, what now? Though the rate hike is good for the GBP, there is a widespread opinion that it will have a very bad effect on the British economy in the long term. There is also the feeling that its effects will start appearing towards the end of the year. This is the reason that GBP did not shoot through the roof once the decision was announced. Of course, the rate hike had already been priced in as it was very much expected.. So this is the situation so far and hence though all the news has released, there is still the slight indecision in the market on where to go.

The crosses somehow seem to have stabilised now and now that all the news has released the rate gap between the GBP and JPY has increased even more, i expect the crosses to rise tomorrow. How far this would be true and how far they would go is unknown now. Let us see what happens tomorrow.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for July 5, 2007

2007-07-04T19:16:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
Well, today is indeed the D day and everyone expects a lot of volatility in the crosses especially GBPJPY. The day has started slow so far but as the day progresses, expect more and more volatility to step in. Which direction would it go? Your guess is as good as mine. This time i would not predict but rather watch the market and then decide which way i want to go. I suggest that others also wait for the decision and see how the market reacts before jumping in.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.80. If that is broken, next support is at 166.45 and the final major support is at 166.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.

Happy Trading !!!

Market Commentary.

2007-07-04T03:01:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Today seems to be a very dull day with the crosses not knowing what to do and where to go. Today being a holiday in the USA, do not expect much fireworks. As predicted in my system the GBPCHF has had a breakout to the upside by around 40-50 pips. I expect the market quiet for the rest of the day with not much action happening around.

All this could be the calm before the storm tomorrow with all the news coming out later tomorrow. We have the ECB rate decision and the press conference, then we have the GBP rate hike and all that which should make it a very interesting and highly volatile day tomorrow. We need to watch the market today to base our judgement on what will happen to the crosses tomorrow.

While trading the news, it is very important to notice the S and R. If you watch carefully, most of the times, just before a news releases, the price would be very close to a S or R and once the news releases, there would be a jump in price from there or a break of the S or R. This is a very curious thing which i have noticed during 80% of the times when news gets released. And, as said previously, try to avoid trading the news especially if you are new to the market. They may look attractive but they aint actually.

Happy Trading!!

5000 and counting...

2007-07-04T02:58:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Yesterday, this blog welcomed its 5000th visitor in slightly less than a month. I feel proud and happy for this great achievement and i wish to thank all of you. Never did i think that i would be able to cross 5000 visitors in such a short span of time and i am happy that i was able to do that. I would again like to thank all of you and i would like to solicit your continued support to this blog and also would like you all to spread the word around.

Supports and Resistances for July 4, 2007

2007-07-03T18:35:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
The crosses had a nice round trip yesterday when they went up a lot and then they finally settled back to where they started from. Today, the crosses seem primed for a breakout on the topside. My system also shows that GBPCHF will also have a run up from the current level by atleast 40-50 pips. The rate decision for the BOE is scheduled for tomorrow and that should add to the volatility. No major news is going to be released today and hence fundamentally there will be no change but technicals point to the upside. Lets see what happens.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.

GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.

Happy Trading !!!

Supports and Resistances for July 03, 2007

2007-07-02T18:34:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

Well, the crosses made me look like a fool yesterday, didnt they? Since the Tenkan came in as expected, i thought the trend would be up as fundamentally, there has been no change from last week when the trend was up. But as usual, the crosses have a tendency to make fools of even the best of traders. So all the crosses had a good retracment yesterday and they were supported by the fibos. As for today, i am doubly unsure of what is going to happen but let me once again stick my nect out and say that the crosses would go down today as well though, as of this writing, the crosses seem very strong. So it is better to watch and find the trend before entering into trades.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.

GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.

Happy Trading !!!

Art of taking Profits..

2007-07-02T06:46:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

Traders have this habit of allowing their profits to keep accumulating.This is a great thing to do and nothing wrong until it is going to be only profits that you are going to have. There will be periods when you start having huge losses and at that points of time, you will startlosing your profits as well.

Lets say that you start with $300 (ofcourse this is true for any amount) and you slowly build up the profits and are sitting at $1000 after 2 months. At that point of time, it would serve you well if you can withdraw atleast a part of the profits and let the rest run.The bigger traders would advice you to withdraw 50% of your profits always on a regular basis. The reason for this is that when you face times of severe losses (if u trade a lot, you will surely face suchperiods), it would be very good and safe and nice to know that atleast you were able to enjoy some of your profits.

Sometimes, the profits that you withdraw might exceed the amount that you had invested and that would be the most satisfying time as you would know that even if you blow up your entire account at that time, you still made a profit over and above what you invested.So always make sure that whatever amount you start with and whatever profits you make, you keep withdrawing atleast 50% of your profits sothat you dont lose all the money that you invested when you start facing losses. Do make sure that you always do this and add this point as well to your trading arsenal.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for July 1, 2007

2007-07-01T18:10:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
The Tenkan came in as expected and hence the crosses have not fallen so far. I expect the crosses to rise today as the Tenkan has not brought about any major changes. The news on the airport also seems to have been forgotten. It should be an interesting day today. With the rate increase expected by the British in this week, expect a lot of volatility this week.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.75 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 165.75 and the final major support is at 164.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.20. If that is broken, next support is at 246.80 and the final major support is at 245.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.80 and then a major resistance at 248.50.

Happy Trading !!!

The Week Ahead for the Crosses..

2007-07-01T02:05:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Its still a good twelve hours before the markets begin and a lot of things might happen in between more so with USA still sleeping at the time of writing and Europe just waking up. But i am going to just stick my neck out and put down my thoughts on where i think the crosses might go on open for Sunday/Monday. Since it is the weekend, there is nothing happening technically on the charts and so i was looking out for some fundamental news. As many of you might have read, a attack has taken place on the Glasgow airport and UK is on high alert. This does not sound good for the GBP and so this might cause some retracement in the GBPJPY which will trigger the same on the other JPY crosses as well.

Also, the Japanese tenkan index is also getting release at 2350 hrs GMT on Sunday and that is something very important to watch out for. It determines the policy of the BOJ in the near future and so this will cause a lot of volatility in the market. The way the tenkan index shapes up will determine the course of the crosses over the next week. If it is bad, it will help the crosses touch 125, 250 and 168 but if it is good and strong for Japan, it will cause a good retracement/correction.

So what is my prediction for the crosses this week? Well predicting is a very dangerous business as everytime i predict,i put my reputation on the line. So far, things have gone great with my predictions but still it is a dangerous game. But trading in itself is quite dangerous and so here goes. I feel that the tenkan will come good and this coupled with the attack on the airport should cause some good retracement. But watch out. I might be totally wrong and it might so happen that the tenkan comes bad, and then the attack on the airport would be forgotten and the crosses might zoom ahead. My personal feel is that it will go down (sorry Mike) but we need to watch out what happens. So the best advice would be:- for those who have open trades already, wait and see till the Tenkan comes out. For those who do not have open trades (like me!!), wait till the Tenkan, see the direction and then jump in. No Hurry...Trade slowly, there are lots of pips to be made.

I hope the crosses dont make a fool of me. Lets see though..

Happy Trading!!

Trading systems..

2007-06-30T09:36:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Everyday lot of traders ask me what trading system i use and they also ask my opinion about what trading systems they can use. The best advice that any experienced trader can give to another inexperienced one is to find things yourself. Not only in trading, in any sphere of life, only those things which we learnt by ourselves and which we spent time in understanding and imbibing would stay with us throughout our life. Those things which are got for free without much effort would either not stay with us at all or would leave us soon. We would understand the full value of anything only if we struggle and achieve it.

So try and learn trading and systems on your own. Go around the net, look into forums and forex sites, read read and read and gain as much knowledge about all the things as you can. The net has an equal number of scamsters and very helpful people as well. So be careful and spend your time finding out who the scamsters and who the nice guys are. Of course, you would lose money and time in the process but it would be well worth it. Learn the basics first, then how to see the charts, then learn the important indicators and then try to develop your own trading system. Of course, lots of system are freely available on the net. Learn as many as you can and if you feel comfortable with any of them , go ahead and use it. Or find out the good points of the system and try to incorporate them into your own.

Even today, though i may have 2-3 trading systems of my own, i spend every weekend trying to look for a new trading system which is better than my current one. I look around the forums and also look at the charts myself to develop my own. No trading system would be 100% successful but you can keep looking for systems which get close to that figure. The closer you get, the more money you would make. The process of learning and improving never stops. So keep reading and keep learning. It will always be useful whichever stage of your life (trading and otherwise) you are in..

Happy Trading!!

4000 and counting...

2007-06-29T01:54:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
It gives me great happiness to inform you all that this blog now has had 4000 visitors to it as of yesterday. It was only 3-4 days back that we crossed 3000 visitors and it is great to know that we have crossed 4000 so soon. This shows that the popularity of the site is growing by the day and i am very happy about that.

Once again, i would like to thank all of you for your great support to this blog and with your continued support, i hope to keep this blog running and share whatever little knowledge that i have in the currency market. Please continue to support this blog and please spread the word around.

Happy Trading!!

Newbie Syndrome..

2007-06-29T01:52:00.000-07:00

As expected and as posted in todays article, the crosses have begun their upmove and i feel that it would go on for a few days. Today, i would like to discuss about what i call the newbie syndrome. Most of us, when we start out, have small TPs in our minds and we all enter forex after some thorough study and all studies tell us that we need to have strict SLs. So when we start out trading, we have good TPs and SLs and we trade diligently.
With this kind of trading, we slowly accumulate our profits and suddenly we find that we have doubled our account and we feel happy and proud. But as the size of the account grows and as we make more and more successful trades, we forget our good habits and slowly fall into bad ones.

We forget that we need to have SLs, we forget that we need to set good TPs. So what do we do? We find that some of our SLs get hit and then the pair travels in the direction of our trade. So, slowly, we stop using SLs. We keep losing trades and we keep hanging on to them hoping that somewhere somehow some magic would happen and we would get back to parity on our trades. We also become greedy and start having impossible TPs. We forget the strategy that we used to make so much of profits and start trading with no strategy at all. This slowly leads to degradation of our account and one fine day, we find that our account has been wiped out totally.
The best way to make money is to be patient with our profits and impatient with our losses, but we always do it the other way around. We are impatient with our profits and we close our successful trades with very small profits. We are very patient with our losing trades and we keep waiting and waiting hoping that it would come back but the trade never comes back and it either closes out our account or someday we get a flash, understand that the trade would not come back and finally close the trade with a huge loss.

The above is the newbie syndrome and i guess many of us would have gone through it. So find out what strategies made you make a profit and stick to it. Dont change it. Times would change and your trades would keep going up and down but stick to strategy. Keep studying the market, its changes and keep analysing and keep developing new and better strategies in sync with the changing market. Analyse your new system thoroughly and make sure that it would be a profitable one in the long run before you decide to leave out your previous trading system and switch to a new one.

Happy Trading!!

Support and Resistances for June 29, 2007

2007-06-28T19:03:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
As updated yesterday in my last post, i still feel that the crosses are getting ready for a breakout on the long side. They are caught between some strong resistances right now and once those are broken, we should be able to see a good upmove. What all would happen before the resistances are broken, we can only wait and see.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.75 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.

EURJPY - Important support at 165.20. If that is broken, next support is at 164.85 and the final major support is at 164.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 165.80 and then at 166.25.

GBPJPY - Important support at 246.10. If that is broken, next support is at 245.35 and the final major support is at 244.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.60.

Happy Trading !!!

Market is primed for a breakout

2007-06-28T09:52:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Just now checked my charts and all my signals and the crosses seem primed to a breakout. My guess , from the signals that i have, is that it is about to breakout on the buy side. This should be confirmed on the same time when the news releases. Too bad that i would not be on at that time. Anyway, good luck guys. If the crosses stay at the same price or above the price right now (246.25, 123.02 and 165.62) even after the news releases, i guess it would be good for longs. Please use your discretion while taking trades. Markets have known to make fools of even great traders.

Happy Trading!!

The Road Ahead...

2007-06-28T07:20:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
Was a bit busy today with the trading and all that and so could not post much earlier. I apologise for the posts on GBPCHF as i realise that me taking a profit may not be so important to many of you that you need to know about it through my blog. Anyway, it seems that all is set for even more gains ahead for the crosses.

The crosses just seem to be caught in a range for now but i feel that this is just a consolidation period for now and that the crosses are getting ready for the next move up. The next move up should target 125 for UJ, 250 for GJ and 168 or 169 for the EJ. Please note that all these are just predictions based on my intuition and knowledge from what i have seen and not something which is got through some great analysis. The crosses keep changing their character everyday and so they need to be monitored on a daily basis. They might go down and make me look like a fool as well.

But the daily analysis and what i think would happen on a daily basis, i would continue to post them on my blog. So far today, the crosses have had a nice run up and i think the market is waiting for the rate statement due out today. That should give the next direction for the market.

Nowadays, the news seem to have less and less effect on the pairs especially the crosses and the technicals and the overall news of carry trades seem to be the driving forces behind the moves. This makes it all the more important that the traders , especially the smaller ones, dont trade the news. Like all newbies, i also used to trade the news, but i slowly began to understand the futility of trading the news in the midst of brokers, market makers , big traders etc. So i stopped trading the news and am just as fine for it if not better. Thats what i advice the new traders as well. Trading the news would be very tempting looking at the volatility but in the long run, it is just not worth it. So watch out.

Happy Trading!!

Lol...How quick was that...

2007-06-28T00:29:00.000-07:00

Lol...Maan...that was quite quick...and with minimal drawdown, i am up 50 pips on GBPCHF...with potential to go further i guess...lets see though...

GBPCHF long signal on my system.

2007-06-27T23:06:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
GBPCHF gave a signal on my system for longs with atleast 40 pips as TP. This is just a testing part of my system and so i would not advice anyone to trade this. If you do it, its at your own risk. The yen crosses have also broken out of resistances and as i had said in my previous post, the crosses did break out for longs today. So far so good.

Supports and Resistances for June 28, 2007

2007-06-27T18:28:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

The crosses have had a wild day so far in the past 6 hours. They broke thru many resistances and rose up a lot but as of this writing they seem to have corrected back again to a great extent. Data out of Japan was bad today and so i think the crosses have begun their next leg up. There will be a retracment as we are seeing now but i think those are just that, retracements. I feel that today will be good for longs. Lets see though.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 122.70. If that is broken, next support is at 122.35 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.00. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.

EURJPY - Important support at 165.20. If that is broken, next support is at 164.65 and the final major support is at 164.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 165.65 and then at 166.25.

GBPJPY - Important support at 245.30. If that is broken, next support is at 244.70 and the final major support is at 244.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.15 and then a major resistance at 246.85.

Happy Trading !!!

Martingale strategy and EAs

2007-06-27T02:57:00.000-07:00

Martingale is a betting strategy used for a long time right from the 18th century. It is a strategy which is supposed to be used in those cases where the probability of success is 50% like in the toss of a coin. What they do is that when a person bets, he keeps on increasing his bet exponentially for every loss that he makes. This makes sure that even if he wins once, he would be able to recover all the losses plus the money which he had used for betting the last time.

I used to go around many forums a lot (i do it even now) and i read all trading systems with special interest just to understand the strategy behind it and try to imbibe the good points in them. I also see a lot of EAs nowadays and i find that most of the so-called successful ones are based on the martingale strategy. Believe me, if the martingale strategy comes off, its fantastic. It helps you recover all your current losing trades. Here is one example. I start off with 1 lot and for every 20 pips against me, i open another trade in the same direction but with double the number of lots. So if i buy one lot, say at 100, and the price goes to 80, i buy 2 more and if it goes to 60, i buy 4 more and so on.

We use this strategy cos even if the market recovers a bit, i would be able to recoup all my losses with the last biggest trade and if the market recovers a lot, i do make a huge amount of money. So what can go wrong in this?
Two things...First one, it assumes that you have infinite amount of money in your account. Lets say that the market goes against you for 200 pips, you would have to open more than 100 lots to work out this strategy. How many of us have that kind of money? If you start with this strategy, you need to stick with this strategy throughout till you get back your losses else you are in a big soup. You can follow this strategy till you have abt 20 trades open when the market goes off 100 pips against you and then after 100 pips, change your strategy to either stop it or say, change it to increase your lots exponentially every 30 pips. Nope...that cannot be done for this strategy to work.

Second, this strategy assumes that the probability of your success is 50% always. In the market, that probability of success is never 50%. I am not saying that it cannot be 50% or higher. You can make the probability greater than or equal to 50% by your knowledge, experience, study etc. but with none of the above and with just a blind strategy with no consideration of the price action, your probability of success is close to 0%.

The above strategy would seem to work during ranging markets with well spanned out and strong retracements but just as it can make you and help you come out of losing trades, it can wipe you out in next to no time. Everything in this market is like a knife which can cut both sides. Just as things can make something work great for you, things can make them equally worse for you. So watch out.

For those who use EAs based on this strategy, please be advised that it is very dangerous. But if you still insist on using them, make sure that you keep withdrawing your money as you as u make some so that you dont lose everything that you made at one shot when things start going against you.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for June 27, 2007

2007-06-26T19:05:00.000-07:00

Hi all,
The crosses seem to be at the crossroads(!!) and they are still waiting for a direction so that they can move along in that. Yesterday was a topsy turvy day with the GJ and other crosses swinging wildly between their highs and lows. Today, it seems quiet so far as the crosses dont seem to know which direction they need to move. The best thing would be to wait and see the direction before entering. Of course, you could always trade the S and R.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.85 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.

EURJPY - Important support at 165.20. If that is broken, next support is at 164.65 and the final major support is at 164.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 166.65 and then at 166.25.

GBPJPY - Important support at 245.40. If that is broken, next support is at 244.70 and the final major support is at 244.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.15 and then a major resistance at 246.85.

Happy Trading !!!

Money Management again...

2007-06-26T08:26:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
I apologise that i could not post much today as i had some problems with my system and was busy thru the day with my trading and work. So finally, as expected, the crosses had a good retracement today. At the time of writing, they seem to be recovering a bit. Lets see how far they go in their recovery. My system picked up the short in the GJ and i made a good 100 pips thru that today.

The USD rate statement is scheduled for tomorrow and so hopefully that will divert some of the attention to the USD tomorrow. For the last 10 days all the attention and the action have been on the crosses. It is not time yet for longs in the crosses, but i feel that the time might come soon for the longs. This is why it is so important to have good money management and good stop losses.

Having good money management and stop losses helps you to switch positions and turn on your toes whenever the direction changes. Forex is a market where everything happens so quickly especially on the crosses. So you need to be flexible and ready to turn when the market turns. You should not be like a ship which takes 30 mins to make one turn.

If you dont have good stop losses and if you spend too much of your account in holding on to one position, then you would not be in a position to take advantage when the market turns. You will realise the market has turned and you will see that everything that u predicted is happening but you dont have enough money in your account to take advantage of that. So always have good money management and enough money in your account to make use of market turning opportunities.

Happy Trading!!

Supports and Resistances for June 26, 2007

2007-06-25T18:32:00.000-07:00

Hi all,

So finally some correction is beginning to take place in all the crosses, something that was long overdue. My system shows that all the crosses are getting ready for a short though the signals are not confirmed yet. Today should be an interesting day and i have a feeling that today will set the direction for the crosses for the next few days. Throughout this week, all the news are related to the USD but so far, for the past 2 weeks, all the action seems to be coming from the crosses. Let see.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 123.35. If that is broken, next support is at 123.15 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.63 and then at 123.85.

EURJPY - Important support at 166.02. If that is broken, next support is at 165.65 and the final major support is at 165.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 166.41 and then at 166.82.

GBPJPY - Important support at 246.55. If that is broken, next support is at 246.02 and the final major support is at 245.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.10 and then a major resistance at 247.65.

Happy Trading !!!

GBPCHF...

2007-06-25T09:36:00.000-07:00

Hi All,
So my fifth signal using the system has worked fine again and i made abt 45 pips on the move..Not bad i guess especially considering the fact that the drawdown for the all the signals so far has been less than 50 pips..Only the fourth signal was not too good but still got out with a profit. Waiting for the next signal.