Hi All,
As you all might be aware, most of the indicators available out there are lagging indicators, i.e. they lag the price and they always tell you what has already happened and not what is going to happen. This the major drawback of all indicators. It would be great to have an indicator which would tell you what is going to happen in the next time frame. Recently, efforts have started to be made on making predictive indicators but i am not too sure of how successful they can be.
I always believe that all indicators, EAs etc. should be based on price action and simple mathematics rather than any complicated strategy. Its not that lot of traders sit with complicated mathematical systems and then trade the market. Most of the professional traders and banks simply trade what they see, that is, they trade the price action. So i feel that any indicator should take care of the price action and simple maths. I believe that fibos could give us a good idea of predicting the market but they too tell us possible points at which the price can stop but they dont tell us which point is mostly likely to be the stop point. Elliott waves too tell us only the possible stop points and not the exact stop point.
Last few days, i have been trying to come up with some idea for making a predictive indicator but i have been unsuccessful so far. I would like to welcome any ideas from anyone for such an indicator. If some good idea comes out, we can maybe try and make an indicator based on that. Lets try to keep the maths simple, maybe we could use probability theory as well but i guess there should be some way to predict the close price of the next time frame atleast within a range of 10 pips. Lets see what comes out as we continue our search.
Happy Trading!!
Saturday, July 7, 2007
Friday, July 6, 2007
GBPCHF anmd GBPJPY..
Hi All,
Both GBPJPY and GBPCHF seem primed for a breakout though the signals have not been confirmed yet. Both seem to be ready to move on the long side for about 40 pips..Lets see how they go..
Both GBPJPY and GBPCHF seem primed for a breakout though the signals have not been confirmed yet. Both seem to be ready to move on the long side for about 40 pips..Lets see how they go..
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Supports and Resistances on July 06, 2007
Hi all,
As updated in the commentary yesterday, there was not too much volatility in the crosses yesterday as the rate hikes were offset by good data out of the USA. Today i feel that it would be a good day for the long in the crosses. The crosses seem to be caught in tight ranges and they are waiting for a breakout. Lets hope that the breakout would be on the long side.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.
EURJPY - Important support at 167.00. If that is broken, next support is at 166.80 and the final major support is at 166.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.
Happy Trading !!!
As updated in the commentary yesterday, there was not too much volatility in the crosses yesterday as the rate hikes were offset by good data out of the USA. Today i feel that it would be a good day for the long in the crosses. The crosses seem to be caught in tight ranges and they are waiting for a breakout. Lets hope that the breakout would be on the long side.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.
EURJPY - Important support at 167.00. If that is broken, next support is at 166.80 and the final major support is at 166.40. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.
Happy Trading !!!
Market Commentary..
Hi All,
So today all the news has been released but still we did not see too much volatility in the crosses and they managed to stay within a range. GBP showed good volatility but the fact the good news for GBP was compensated by the good news in USD soon after dampened the effects on the crosses and hence they did not have much volatility to show for it..
Now that the news have got released, what now? Though the rate hike is good for the GBP, there is a widespread opinion that it will have a very bad effect on the British economy in the long term. There is also the feeling that its effects will start appearing towards the end of the year. This is the reason that GBP did not shoot through the roof once the decision was announced. Of course, the rate hike had already been priced in as it was very much expected.. So this is the situation so far and hence though all the news has released, there is still the slight indecision in the market on where to go.
The crosses somehow seem to have stabilised now and now that all the news has released the rate gap between the GBP and JPY has increased even more, i expect the crosses to rise tomorrow. How far this would be true and how far they would go is unknown now. Let us see what happens tomorrow.
Happy Trading!!
So today all the news has been released but still we did not see too much volatility in the crosses and they managed to stay within a range. GBP showed good volatility but the fact the good news for GBP was compensated by the good news in USD soon after dampened the effects on the crosses and hence they did not have much volatility to show for it..
Now that the news have got released, what now? Though the rate hike is good for the GBP, there is a widespread opinion that it will have a very bad effect on the British economy in the long term. There is also the feeling that its effects will start appearing towards the end of the year. This is the reason that GBP did not shoot through the roof once the decision was announced. Of course, the rate hike had already been priced in as it was very much expected.. So this is the situation so far and hence though all the news has released, there is still the slight indecision in the market on where to go.
The crosses somehow seem to have stabilised now and now that all the news has released the rate gap between the GBP and JPY has increased even more, i expect the crosses to rise tomorrow. How far this would be true and how far they would go is unknown now. Let us see what happens tomorrow.
Happy Trading!!
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Supports and Resistances for July 5, 2007
Hi all,
Well, today is indeed the D day and everyone expects a lot of volatility in the crosses especially GBPJPY. The day has started slow so far but as the day progresses, expect more and more volatility to step in. Which direction would it go? Your guess is as good as mine. This time i would not predict but rather watch the market and then decide which way i want to go. I suggest that others also wait for the decision and see how the market reacts before jumping in.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.80. If that is broken, next support is at 166.45 and the final major support is at 166.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.
Happy Trading !!!
Well, today is indeed the D day and everyone expects a lot of volatility in the crosses especially GBPJPY. The day has started slow so far but as the day progresses, expect more and more volatility to step in. Which direction would it go? Your guess is as good as mine. This time i would not predict but rather watch the market and then decide which way i want to go. I suggest that others also wait for the decision and see how the market reacts before jumping in.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.66. If that is broken, next support is at 122.22 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.70. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.05 and then at 123.45.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.80. If that is broken, next support is at 166.45 and the final major support is at 166.05. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.20 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.15. If that is broken, next support is at 246.85 and the final major support is at 246.15. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.70 and then a major resistance at 248.20.
Happy Trading !!!
Market Commentary.
Hi All,
Today seems to be a very dull day with the crosses not knowing what to do and where to go. Today being a holiday in the USA, do not expect much fireworks. As predicted in my system the GBPCHF has had a breakout to the upside by around 40-50 pips. I expect the market quiet for the rest of the day with not much action happening around.
All this could be the calm before the storm tomorrow with all the news coming out later tomorrow. We have the ECB rate decision and the press conference, then we have the GBP rate hike and all that which should make it a very interesting and highly volatile day tomorrow. We need to watch the market today to base our judgement on what will happen to the crosses tomorrow.
While trading the news, it is very important to notice the S and R. If you watch carefully, most of the times, just before a news releases, the price would be very close to a S or R and once the news releases, there would be a jump in price from there or a break of the S or R. This is a very curious thing which i have noticed during 80% of the times when news gets released. And, as said previously, try to avoid trading the news especially if you are new to the market. They may look attractive but they aint actually.
Happy Trading!!
Today seems to be a very dull day with the crosses not knowing what to do and where to go. Today being a holiday in the USA, do not expect much fireworks. As predicted in my system the GBPCHF has had a breakout to the upside by around 40-50 pips. I expect the market quiet for the rest of the day with not much action happening around.
All this could be the calm before the storm tomorrow with all the news coming out later tomorrow. We have the ECB rate decision and the press conference, then we have the GBP rate hike and all that which should make it a very interesting and highly volatile day tomorrow. We need to watch the market today to base our judgement on what will happen to the crosses tomorrow.
While trading the news, it is very important to notice the S and R. If you watch carefully, most of the times, just before a news releases, the price would be very close to a S or R and once the news releases, there would be a jump in price from there or a break of the S or R. This is a very curious thing which i have noticed during 80% of the times when news gets released. And, as said previously, try to avoid trading the news especially if you are new to the market. They may look attractive but they aint actually.
Happy Trading!!
5000 and counting...
Hi All,
Yesterday, this blog welcomed its 5000th visitor in slightly less than a month. I feel proud and happy for this great achievement and i wish to thank all of you. Never did i think that i would be able to cross 5000 visitors in such a short span of time and i am happy that i was able to do that. I would again like to thank all of you and i would like to solicit your continued support to this blog and also would like you all to spread the word around.
Yesterday, this blog welcomed its 5000th visitor in slightly less than a month. I feel proud and happy for this great achievement and i wish to thank all of you. Never did i think that i would be able to cross 5000 visitors in such a short span of time and i am happy that i was able to do that. I would again like to thank all of you and i would like to solicit your continued support to this blog and also would like you all to spread the word around.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Supports and Resistances for July 4, 2007
Hi all,
The crosses had a nice round trip yesterday when they went up a lot and then they finally settled back to where they started from. Today, the crosses seem primed for a breakout on the topside. My system also shows that GBPCHF will also have a run up from the current level by atleast 40-50 pips. The rate decision for the BOE is scheduled for tomorrow and that should add to the volatility. No major news is going to be released today and hence fundamentally there will be no change but technicals point to the upside. Lets see what happens.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.
Happy Trading !!!
The crosses had a nice round trip yesterday when they went up a lot and then they finally settled back to where they started from. Today, the crosses seem primed for a breakout on the topside. My system also shows that GBPCHF will also have a run up from the current level by atleast 40-50 pips. The rate decision for the BOE is scheduled for tomorrow and that should add to the volatility. No major news is going to be released today and hence fundamentally there will be no change but technicals point to the upside. Lets see what happens.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.
Happy Trading !!!
Monday, July 2, 2007
Supports and Resistances for July 03, 2007
Hi all,
Well, the crosses made me look like a fool yesterday, didnt they? Since the Tenkan came in as expected, i thought the trend would be up as fundamentally, there has been no change from last week when the trend was up. But as usual, the crosses have a tendency to make fools of even the best of traders. So all the crosses had a good retracment yesterday and they were supported by the fibos. As for today, i am doubly unsure of what is going to happen but let me once again stick my nect out and say that the crosses would go down today as well though, as of this writing, the crosses seem very strong. So it is better to watch and find the trend before entering into trades.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.
Happy Trading !!!
Well, the crosses made me look like a fool yesterday, didnt they? Since the Tenkan came in as expected, i thought the trend would be up as fundamentally, there has been no change from last week when the trend was up. But as usual, the crosses have a tendency to make fools of even the best of traders. So all the crosses had a good retracment yesterday and they were supported by the fibos. As for today, i am doubly unsure of what is going to happen but let me once again stick my nect out and say that the crosses would go down today as well though, as of this writing, the crosses seem very strong. So it is better to watch and find the trend before entering into trades.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 122.22. If that is broken, next support is at 121.80 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.65 and then at 123.05.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 166.20 and the final major support is at 165.65. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 246.15. If that is broken, next support is at 245.90 and the final major support is at 245.20. On the topside, the resistance is at 246.90 and then a major resistance at 247.70.
Happy Trading !!!
Art of taking Profits..
Hi All,
Traders have this habit of allowing their profits to keep accumulating.This is a great thing to do and nothing wrong until it is going to be only profits that you are going to have. There will be periods when you start having huge losses and at that points of time, you will startlosing your profits as well.
Lets say that you start with $300 (ofcourse this is true for any amount) and you slowly build up the profits and are sitting at $1000 after 2 months. At that point of time, it would serve you well if you can withdraw atleast a part of the profits and let the rest run.The bigger traders would advice you to withdraw 50% of your profits always on a regular basis. The reason for this is that when you face times of severe losses (if u trade a lot, you will surely face suchperiods), it would be very good and safe and nice to know that atleast you were able to enjoy some of your profits.
Sometimes, the profits that you withdraw might exceed the amount that you had invested and that would be the most satisfying time as you would know that even if you blow up your entire account at that time, you still made a profit over and above what you invested.So always make sure that whatever amount you start with and whatever profits you make, you keep withdrawing atleast 50% of your profits sothat you dont lose all the money that you invested when you start facing losses. Do make sure that you always do this and add this point as well to your trading arsenal.
Happy Trading!!
Traders have this habit of allowing their profits to keep accumulating.This is a great thing to do and nothing wrong until it is going to be only profits that you are going to have. There will be periods when you start having huge losses and at that points of time, you will startlosing your profits as well.
Lets say that you start with $300 (ofcourse this is true for any amount) and you slowly build up the profits and are sitting at $1000 after 2 months. At that point of time, it would serve you well if you can withdraw atleast a part of the profits and let the rest run.The bigger traders would advice you to withdraw 50% of your profits always on a regular basis. The reason for this is that when you face times of severe losses (if u trade a lot, you will surely face suchperiods), it would be very good and safe and nice to know that atleast you were able to enjoy some of your profits.
Sometimes, the profits that you withdraw might exceed the amount that you had invested and that would be the most satisfying time as you would know that even if you blow up your entire account at that time, you still made a profit over and above what you invested.So always make sure that whatever amount you start with and whatever profits you make, you keep withdrawing atleast 50% of your profits sothat you dont lose all the money that you invested when you start facing losses. Do make sure that you always do this and add this point as well to your trading arsenal.
Happy Trading!!
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Supports and Resistances for July 1, 2007
Hi all,
The Tenkan came in as expected and hence the crosses have not fallen so far. I expect the crosses to rise today as the Tenkan has not brought about any major changes. The news on the airport also seems to have been forgotten. It should be an interesting day today. With the rate increase expected by the British in this week, expect a lot of volatility this week.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.75 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 165.75 and the final major support is at 164.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.20. If that is broken, next support is at 246.80 and the final major support is at 245.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.80 and then a major resistance at 248.50.
Happy Trading !!!
The Tenkan came in as expected and hence the crosses have not fallen so far. I expect the crosses to rise today as the Tenkan has not brought about any major changes. The news on the airport also seems to have been forgotten. It should be an interesting day today. With the rate increase expected by the British in this week, expect a lot of volatility this week.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-
USDJPY - Important support at 123.05. If that is broken, next support is at 122.75 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 122.35. On the topside, the resistance is at 123.40 and then at 123.85.
EURJPY - Important support at 166.40. If that is broken, next support is at 165.75 and the final major support is at 164.85. On the topside, the resistance is at 167.00 and then at 167.45.
GBPJPY - Important support at 247.20. If that is broken, next support is at 246.80 and the final major support is at 245.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 247.80 and then a major resistance at 248.50.
Happy Trading !!!
The Week Ahead for the Crosses..
Hi All,
Its still a good twelve hours before the markets begin and a lot of things might happen in between more so with USA still sleeping at the time of writing and Europe just waking up. But i am going to just stick my neck out and put down my thoughts on where i think the crosses might go on open for Sunday/Monday. Since it is the weekend, there is nothing happening technically on the charts and so i was looking out for some fundamental news. As many of you might have read, a attack has taken place on the Glasgow airport and UK is on high alert. This does not sound good for the GBP and so this might cause some retracement in the GBPJPY which will trigger the same on the other JPY crosses as well.
Also, the Japanese tenkan index is also getting release at 2350 hrs GMT on Sunday and that is something very important to watch out for. It determines the policy of the BOJ in the near future and so this will cause a lot of volatility in the market. The way the tenkan index shapes up will determine the course of the crosses over the next week. If it is bad, it will help the crosses touch 125, 250 and 168 but if it is good and strong for Japan, it will cause a good retracement/correction.
So what is my prediction for the crosses this week? Well predicting is a very dangerous business as everytime i predict,i put my reputation on the line. So far, things have gone great with my predictions but still it is a dangerous game. But trading in itself is quite dangerous and so here goes. I feel that the tenkan will come good and this coupled with the attack on the airport should cause some good retracement. But watch out. I might be totally wrong and it might so happen that the tenkan comes bad, and then the attack on the airport would be forgotten and the crosses might zoom ahead. My personal feel is that it will go down (sorry Mike) but we need to watch out what happens. So the best advice would be:- for those who have open trades already, wait and see till the Tenkan comes out. For those who do not have open trades (like me!!), wait till the Tenkan, see the direction and then jump in. No Hurry...Trade slowly, there are lots of pips to be made.
I hope the crosses dont make a fool of me. Lets see though..
Happy Trading!!
Its still a good twelve hours before the markets begin and a lot of things might happen in between more so with USA still sleeping at the time of writing and Europe just waking up. But i am going to just stick my neck out and put down my thoughts on where i think the crosses might go on open for Sunday/Monday. Since it is the weekend, there is nothing happening technically on the charts and so i was looking out for some fundamental news. As many of you might have read, a attack has taken place on the Glasgow airport and UK is on high alert. This does not sound good for the GBP and so this might cause some retracement in the GBPJPY which will trigger the same on the other JPY crosses as well.
Also, the Japanese tenkan index is also getting release at 2350 hrs GMT on Sunday and that is something very important to watch out for. It determines the policy of the BOJ in the near future and so this will cause a lot of volatility in the market. The way the tenkan index shapes up will determine the course of the crosses over the next week. If it is bad, it will help the crosses touch 125, 250 and 168 but if it is good and strong for Japan, it will cause a good retracement/correction.
So what is my prediction for the crosses this week? Well predicting is a very dangerous business as everytime i predict,i put my reputation on the line. So far, things have gone great with my predictions but still it is a dangerous game. But trading in itself is quite dangerous and so here goes. I feel that the tenkan will come good and this coupled with the attack on the airport should cause some good retracement. But watch out. I might be totally wrong and it might so happen that the tenkan comes bad, and then the attack on the airport would be forgotten and the crosses might zoom ahead. My personal feel is that it will go down (sorry Mike) but we need to watch out what happens. So the best advice would be:- for those who have open trades already, wait and see till the Tenkan comes out. For those who do not have open trades (like me!!), wait till the Tenkan, see the direction and then jump in. No Hurry...Trade slowly, there are lots of pips to be made.
I hope the crosses dont make a fool of me. Lets see though..
Happy Trading!!
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