Chart to explain the bounce..

Hi All,

One of the comments for my last article wanted me to post a chart to explain on how and why it was a 38.2 fibo bounce for the GJ. As specified in my last post, the GJ did manage to find good support at the 38.2 of the last wave and that support managed to hold for the weekend. Monday should be an interesting day with the support below and 23.6 of the wave just above the current price as the resistance.


To explain further, i have attached a chart below to show how i have plotted the fibos. This is the first time that i am attaching an image to my blog and so pls bear with me if there is something that is wrong with it. In the chart, you can clearly see the bounce from the 38.2. Likewise, you could plot the fibos for the other crosses as well and find that they too bounced from the various fibos.



I personally, dont feel that the 50.0 fibo as being very strong support or resistance. I have noted that the 23.6, 38.2 and 61.8 as being the strong fibos. I may be wrong though.


Happy Trading!!!

Man, What a Day...

Hi All,
Man, what a day!! The day started off as normal, in fact it started off better for the crosses than any of the days so far in this week. And it was after the start of the US session that the crosses were ripped apart. Till that time, they were doing well and lot of traders would have got in hoping to see new highs as all things pointed in that direction.

The USD seems so weak nowadays, so weak that it cant even seem to be able to stand up and rise against the yen which is the weakest currency. Some turnaround is needed for the USD for the well being of all the other currencies. The crosses were dragged down by the USDJPY cos as all of you can see, the GU held well and so did the EU. The USDJPY dragged down the crosses. The GJ crashed through the 23.8 fibo (where i had expected it to find some good support) and finally ended at the 38.2 fibo of the last wave.

Now i feel that there should be good support at this point and this support should hold over the weekend. This is why it is always good for have good money management so that you can buy at important support and if you can manage to do that, you can never lose in this game.

Just knowing the S and R and also having good account balance and money management skills should ensure that you are profitable in the long run.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 20, 2007

Hi all,
It was a good ranging day yesterday as well and not much of breakout was seen in any of the currency pair. I expected a breakout in either direction in some currency pairs based on the FOMC minutes but that does not seem to have happened. The minutes barely caused a whimper. As for today, there is not much news which would give the push in either direction for the crosses to breakout today. But that being said, midway through the asian session, as of this writing, the crosses seem quite strong, the strongest that they have been at this time all of this week. So it might turn out to be an interesting day with only the GB GDP being the highlight news for the day, which is surprising as Fridays are usually packed with lot of important news. Lets see how the market pans out. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.91. If that is broken, next support is at 121.70 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.27 and then at 122.66.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.36. If that is broken, next support is at 167.95 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.74 and then at 168.96.

GBPJPY - Important support at 250.00. If that is broken, next support is at 249.54 and the final major support is at 249.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.48 and then a major resistance at 251.00.

Happy Trading !!!

Supports and Resistances for July 19, 2007

Hi all,

There was some nice range trading in the crosses yesterday and it all depends on the news that is to be released today. If the news from GB and USD is as expected, then we can expect some more range tradingfor the day. The FOMC meeting minutes are to be released today and i feel that it might cause some shift and maybe bring in some strength to the USD. We will have to wait and see. Till that time, we should be seeing some good range trading as there has been no fundamental change to any of the crosses so far. As usual though, I still favor the longs on the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.20. If that is broken, next support is at 167.90 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.82.

GBPJPY - Important support at 250.00. If that is broken, next support is at 249.54 and the final major support is at 249.01. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.48 and then a major resistance at 251.00.

Happy Trading !!!

Good Ranging Day..

Hi All,

So all the crosses traded in a nice range today and there was some good breakout in GBPUSD....The last few days have been good to trade. Hope all of you made some good money. I had anticipated some of the currency pairs to breakout in a either direction as a lot of news was released today but the pairs did not show too much volatility today in reaction to the news.


The GBP had some positive and some expecte news and hence there was not too much fluctuation in it as well as in GBPJPY. The USD also had some good as well as bad news and i guess they balanced out each other. So not too much volatility was seen in the crosses and they held within range.

The fact that the crosses held on to their supports inspite of good pressure shows that there is a good chance of them to keep going up. There might be some retracement when the Japan markets open tomorrow but still, i think the longs would be favored.

Tomorrow, some more news from GB and US are to be released which would liven up the day. And then, the FOMC minutes would be released which would tell what the US banks are planning to do in the near future. These are the major event risks for tomorrow. I am on the lookout for some trigger news from GB which would tell that the weak dollar is weighing on the economy (which would in turn lead to a correction in GB and strength in USD) but so far, the news are related to the past months when the effect of a weak dollar would not have been felt. The next month would be the time when news related to this month would be released which might show the economy being affected by the weak USD.

So be on the lookout for any weak news from any country and keep your stop losses and take profits good and tight.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 18, 2007

Hi all,

As updated yesterday, there has been nice breakouts in the crosses. As of this writing, the crosses have had some rectracement. the main reason being that some news has got released with details about the Bank of Japan meeting. The news does not continue any new details nor does it contain any details that should cause any fundamental change to the current situation. So for now, we can safely assume that the crosses are just having a retracement and they should be back any time. I still favor the longs on the crosses. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 168.24. If that is broken, next support is at 167.90 and the final major support is at 167.55. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.62 and then at 168.82.

GBPJPY - Important support at 249.52. If that is broken, next support is at 249.01 and the final major support is at 248.51. On the topside, the resistance is at 250.00 and then a major resistance at 250.49.

Happy Trading !!!

Finally...

Hi All,
So finally the much awaited breakout has well and truly arrived. And how it was. It led to a huge gain of more than 200 pips for both GBPJPY and GBPCHF.. I am sure a lot of you would have made nice little profits in this. You should have. It is always easy to make nice good profits on an upmove and in a trend when you already know that the trend is coming.

Well, if you did not know that the upmove was coming, then you need to still learn a lot more in this market. Last few days, there were quite good signs of a breakout coming along. The ranges were getting tight, the tops and bottoms kept holding on well despite the movement in other currencies and despite the various news. The more the range trading takes place, the bigger the breakout would be and thats what we saw today. The tight range trading kept going on and on for 4-5 days and the more the number of days it went on, the greater will be the speed and ferocity of the breakout when it arrives. GJ was the one which has range traded the most and today it could be seen that its range was double the normal range.

Now a bit of consolidation and a bit of retracement would take place before the next upmove. All the consolidation and retracement are just fueling up for the next move. No one knows when this would change trends and when this would stop. But as long as you are in the direction of the trend, there should not be much to worry about.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 17, 2007

Hi all,
It has been quiet so far this week. No major changes in any of the currency pairs. GU seems to be the most active one making new highs everyday but it seems to be getting ready for a drop. Lot of important news scheduled to be released today both from GB as well as USA and this should make this a very interesting day. I would not like to stick my neck out and say what is going to happen except that we might expect a break in the range trading of the crosses today. The crosses have been within a small range for many days now and it only a matter of time before they break that range. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.98. If that is broken, next support is at 167.57 and the final major support is at 167.18. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.75. If that is broken, next support is at 247.40 and the final major support is at 246.88. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.44 and then a major resistance at 248.89.

Happy Trading !!!

Market Commentary...

Hi All,
The crosses still seem to be caught up in a small range and they dont seem to have been able to break out of that. The only encouraging thing so far is that none of the crosses have broken to the downside which shows that they have a lot of strength and support at the bottom.

GJ seems to have been caught in the range of 247.9 and 248.9 and cannot come out of it even though GU has been making new highs daily. But this is good in a way as this gives us the opportunity to trade the S and R effectively.
Tomorrow some more important news is to be released and we need to see the effect of that. So far, the news which came out of USA today did not seem to affect the pairs in any big way and so we have to wait and see what happens with the news coming out tomorrow. The yen crosses seem to be quite strong and as said, they have quite good support. So i feel that it is only a matter of time before there is a breakout on the long side. But of course, tomorrow is a new day and with that we need to see what it brings along. The Japanese would also be back tomorrow after their holiday and we need to see how they react to the current market situation.

Happy Trading!!!

Supports and Resistances for July 16, 2007

Hi all,
Quiet start to the new week with the holiday in Japan. So not much activity over the next few hours and the real trading would start with the open of the London session. The crosses look strong at the open today but they really need to break through the tight ranges that they are in for the last week for them to go even higher. Unless the range is broken on the upside soon, then we run the risk of losses. I believe that this week would be good for the longs on the crosses as usual. But there is quite a lot of important news being released from GB this week and these may tend to drag the GU and hence the GJ as well. These should make this an interesting. Lets see.Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today:-

USDJPY - Important support at 121.88. If that is broken, next support is at 121.40 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 121.10. On the topside, the resistance is at 122.66 and then at 123.40.

EURJPY - Important support at 167.98. If that is broken, next support is at 167.57 and the final major support is at 167.18. On the topside, the resistance is at 168.36 and then at 168.80.

GBPJPY - Important support at 247.75. If that is broken, next support is at 247.40 and the final major support is at 246.88. On the topside, the resistance is at 248.44 and then a major resistance at 248.89.

Happy Trading !!!