Hi All,
Lol. So the trend changes again. This is a nightmare for long term traders and a dream come true for swing traders and scalpers. The market does not seem to know which direction it has to go. On the one hand, the technicals and the fundamental rate difference favor the longs. On the other hand, there are the sub prime issues and others which favor the shorts and the market does not know what to do. Each news and each statement is being studied closely to see which of these is more serious. This would continue through till September when the news with regard to August (which was when the sub prime issues cropped up) would get released and that would tell us the true picture of how serious this issue is. Also, with rate cuts and hikes expected, things would start becoming clear next month. Till then, this kind of trading would continue. As for today, let me stick my neck out and say that today is a day for longs. So bulls can enjoy and traders can hunt with the bulls. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 115.63. If that is broken, next support is at 115.39 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.84. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.29 and then at 116.86.
EURJPY - Important support at 157.81. If that is broken, next support is at 157.03 and the final major support is at 156.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 158.59 and then at 159.12.
GBPJPY - Important support at 232.81. If that is broken, next support is at 232.06 and the final major support is at 231.25.On the topside, the resistance is at 234.38 and then a major resistance at 235.94.
If you want to join my trading group/managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com
Happy Trading!!!
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Supports and Resistances for August 29, 2007
Hi All,
So we are back to being bearish again. The tide seems to have turned yesterday and we had a good huge correction yesterday. How long would this go, whether it is short term or long term, no one can really say but there does not seem to be any news on the horizon which would change the fundamental picture drastically anytime soon. It is a tough thing to trade for the long term investors. The crosses were usually the ones which had a nice long trends going in one direction or the other but now we see them switching trends every week which would be tough on them. But this kind of volatility is a dream for swing traders and scalpers. So all those traders out there, join the bears and enjoy your trades. The main idea of trading is to trade what you see and go along with the markets rather than try and outgues it. If the market falls, go with it, if it rises, go with it as well.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 113.64. If that is broken, next support is at 113.15 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 112.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.03 and then at 114.70.
EURJPY - Important support at 154.40. If that is broken, next support is at 153.20 and the final major support is at 151.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.10 and then at 156.20.
GBPJPY - Important support at 226.90. If that is broken, next support is at 225.10 and the final major support is at 224.10.On the topside, the resistance is at 228.05 and then a major resistance at 229.74.
Happy Trading!!!
So we are back to being bearish again. The tide seems to have turned yesterday and we had a good huge correction yesterday. How long would this go, whether it is short term or long term, no one can really say but there does not seem to be any news on the horizon which would change the fundamental picture drastically anytime soon. It is a tough thing to trade for the long term investors. The crosses were usually the ones which had a nice long trends going in one direction or the other but now we see them switching trends every week which would be tough on them. But this kind of volatility is a dream for swing traders and scalpers. So all those traders out there, join the bears and enjoy your trades. The main idea of trading is to trade what you see and go along with the markets rather than try and outgues it. If the market falls, go with it, if it rises, go with it as well.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 113.64. If that is broken, next support is at 113.15 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 112.50. On the topside, the resistance is at 114.03 and then at 114.70.
EURJPY - Important support at 154.40. If that is broken, next support is at 153.20 and the final major support is at 151.90. On the topside, the resistance is at 155.10 and then at 156.20.
GBPJPY - Important support at 226.90. If that is broken, next support is at 225.10 and the final major support is at 224.10.On the topside, the resistance is at 228.05 and then a major resistance at 229.74.
Happy Trading!!!
Monday, August 27, 2007
Supports and Resistances for August 28, 2007
Hi All,
It was a boring day yesterday with not much action till the US session. The traders expected the existing home sales to lead to action but it came in as expected. The stock market fell yesterday and this led to a good retracement in the crosses. It should be an interesting day today. The lower time frames are pointing downwards but the 4H is still bullish. It is a bit confusing now and the best thing to do (if you are not sure what to do ) is to wait for the London markets to open. They usually favor the European currencies and with them coming back after a holiday, we might see the crosses rise or they might choose to go with the current trend. We need to wait and see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 115.55. If that is broken, next support is at 115.25 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.82. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.00 and then at 116.40.
EURJPY - Important support at 157.64. If that is broken, next support is at 157.05 and the final major support is at 156.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.80 and then at 158.41.
GBPJPY - Important support at 232.00. If that is broken, next support is at 231.37 and the final major support is at 230.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 232.33 and then a major resistance at 233.50.
Happy Trading!!!
It was a boring day yesterday with not much action till the US session. The traders expected the existing home sales to lead to action but it came in as expected. The stock market fell yesterday and this led to a good retracement in the crosses. It should be an interesting day today. The lower time frames are pointing downwards but the 4H is still bullish. It is a bit confusing now and the best thing to do (if you are not sure what to do ) is to wait for the London markets to open. They usually favor the European currencies and with them coming back after a holiday, we might see the crosses rise or they might choose to go with the current trend. We need to wait and see. Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 115.55. If that is broken, next support is at 115.25 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 114.82. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.00 and then at 116.40.
EURJPY - Important support at 157.64. If that is broken, next support is at 157.05 and the final major support is at 156.25. On the topside, the resistance is at 157.80 and then at 158.41.
GBPJPY - Important support at 232.00. If that is broken, next support is at 231.37 and the final major support is at 230.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 232.33 and then a major resistance at 233.50.
Happy Trading!!!
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Supports and Resistances for August 27, 2007
Hi All,
So another new days today. I expect the volatility to be less toda atleast until the start of the NY session as today is a bank holiday in the UK. But todays news should provide great volatility at the beginning of the NY session with Trichet speaking and also the existing home sales news also to be released. The existing home sales should provide the short term direction as it would be directly related to the interest rates and housing credits problems. I still maintain the stance that the overall direction i bullish though we may have the occasional retracements. All in all, an interesting day ahead.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 116.18. If that is broken, next support is at 115.88 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.45 and then at 116.80.
EURJPY - Important support at 158.54. If that is broken, next support is at 157.75 and the final major support is at 157.07. On the topside, the resistance is at 159.40 and then at 159.91.
GBPJPY - Important support at 234.50. If that is broken, next support is at 233.60 and the final major support is at 232.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 235.23 and then a major resistance at 236.00.
Happy Trading!!!
So another new days today. I expect the volatility to be less toda atleast until the start of the NY session as today is a bank holiday in the UK. But todays news should provide great volatility at the beginning of the NY session with Trichet speaking and also the existing home sales news also to be released. The existing home sales should provide the short term direction as it would be directly related to the interest rates and housing credits problems. I still maintain the stance that the overall direction i bullish though we may have the occasional retracements. All in all, an interesting day ahead.
Below are the supports and resistances for the JPY crosses for today :-
USDJPY - Important support at 116.18. If that is broken, next support is at 115.88 which is a very strong support and the final major support is at 115.60. On the topside, the resistance is at 116.45 and then at 116.80.
EURJPY - Important support at 158.54. If that is broken, next support is at 157.75 and the final major support is at 157.07. On the topside, the resistance is at 159.40 and then at 159.91.
GBPJPY - Important support at 234.50. If that is broken, next support is at 233.60 and the final major support is at 232.80.On the topside, the resistance is at 235.23 and then a major resistance at 236.00.
Happy Trading!!!
Where are GBPJPY and other crosses headed to?
Hi All,So just 2 weeks back, we had this great fall in all the crosses and the crosses feel to record lows. Now last week, we ended up with a big rise. Now where do the crosses go from here? Two weeks back, i had said that the crosses would rise in September but that seems to be happening sooner than i expected. With all this, and with my analysis, it looks as though the crosses would rise to their pre-August levels by the end of September. The GJ should rise to 250 or even more within the next 5 weeks (end of September). Likewise with the other crosses. Of course, there would be the rectracements, but these retracements would not last for more than a couple of days and should not take Gj, for example, below 230 once it manages to crosses 235.
So all those who are interested in long term investments can load up their longs. The weekly technicals have started moving up already. What about the fundamentals, some may ask. What about sub prime, interest rates etc etc? All these existed even before May and these would continue to exist. The US economy has not become so weak overnight. We had a huge correction just for a week and now the normal service has been restored for longs. Does that mean that the economy was weak only for a week? No.
Every country has its fundamental problems with its economy and its just that these get exaggerated when things start going on. When the currency starts falling, people start looking around for reasons to attribute to the fall and they come up with variety of reasons. The same problems which existed during the fall did exist 3 mnths before the actual fall came and they continue to exist even now. But where have all factors and reasons gone when the currencies were falling?
It is all a question of basic rise and fall of currencies as a cycle over a period of time. When the GBP was rising to record highs, i had written that it would have to fall back to its original price of around 1.96 sometime soon and it did within 45 days. Now it is slowly going back up again. No country can afford to have either a weak currency or a very strong currency as well. If we take GBP and USD, lets assume that GBP is rising during a mnth as economic news out of USA is very weak and news out of GB is very strong. So the GBPUSD continues to rise but then this would slowly start affecting the economy of the respective countries. Importers and exporters would be the first to start feeling this effect as they start getting less and less GBP and more and more USD. This creates an imbalance and this starts reflecting in all spheres of life like cost of various products, profits etc. This effect would slowly begin to show in the economic news that are released over the next mnth or so. These economic news would show that economy of GB is weakening due to the weak USd and the economy of USA is strengthening due to this imbalance. Once such economic news started filtering out, the correct would take place which would correct the imbalance.
This is exactly what happened for the GBPUSD over the months of June, July and August. In June and part of July, GB was strengthening and USD was falling. This started affecting the economies and created imbalance and this was reflected in the news released from GB and USA in the later part of July and beginning of August which showed bad results from GB and quite good results from USA and this led to a correction in the pair to correct the imbalance.
Same principle would apply to the crosses as well and you can see the effect of all this in the forthcoming weeks and this imbalance would be set right by the end of September. So may the bulls enjoy!!!
If you are interested in joining my trading group/ managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com
So all those who are interested in long term investments can load up their longs. The weekly technicals have started moving up already. What about the fundamentals, some may ask. What about sub prime, interest rates etc etc? All these existed even before May and these would continue to exist. The US economy has not become so weak overnight. We had a huge correction just for a week and now the normal service has been restored for longs. Does that mean that the economy was weak only for a week? No.
Every country has its fundamental problems with its economy and its just that these get exaggerated when things start going on. When the currency starts falling, people start looking around for reasons to attribute to the fall and they come up with variety of reasons. The same problems which existed during the fall did exist 3 mnths before the actual fall came and they continue to exist even now. But where have all factors and reasons gone when the currencies were falling?
It is all a question of basic rise and fall of currencies as a cycle over a period of time. When the GBP was rising to record highs, i had written that it would have to fall back to its original price of around 1.96 sometime soon and it did within 45 days. Now it is slowly going back up again. No country can afford to have either a weak currency or a very strong currency as well. If we take GBP and USD, lets assume that GBP is rising during a mnth as economic news out of USA is very weak and news out of GB is very strong. So the GBPUSD continues to rise but then this would slowly start affecting the economy of the respective countries. Importers and exporters would be the first to start feeling this effect as they start getting less and less GBP and more and more USD. This creates an imbalance and this starts reflecting in all spheres of life like cost of various products, profits etc. This effect would slowly begin to show in the economic news that are released over the next mnth or so. These economic news would show that economy of GB is weakening due to the weak USd and the economy of USA is strengthening due to this imbalance. Once such economic news started filtering out, the correct would take place which would correct the imbalance.
This is exactly what happened for the GBPUSD over the months of June, July and August. In June and part of July, GB was strengthening and USD was falling. This started affecting the economies and created imbalance and this was reflected in the news released from GB and USA in the later part of July and beginning of August which showed bad results from GB and quite good results from USA and this led to a correction in the pair to correct the imbalance.
Same principle would apply to the crosses as well and you can see the effect of all this in the forthcoming weeks and this imbalance would be set right by the end of September. So may the bulls enjoy!!!
If you are interested in joining my trading group/ managed accounts, pls mail me at kartram.77@gmail.com
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